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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska 
529 am akdt sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
aloft... 
a low over southwest Alaska will persist through Tuesday then move 
east and as a long wave trough develops over Mainland Alaska Wednesday 
and Thursday. This will bring cooler and wetter weather to much of 
northern Alaska starting Wednesday. 


A ridge from Southeast Alaska to northwest Alaska will break down 
Sun night and then rebuild Monday night. A short wave trough and 
coincident surface occluded front now along the Gulf of Alaska coast 
will move to Bethel to Northway by 4pm sun...to Unalakleet to Eagle 
by 4am Monday and dissipate along a Unalakleet to Circle line Monday PM. 
Chinook winds now over the Alaska Range will decrease Sun night as 
the trough moves over the area and weakens the ridge. Expect 
isolated/scattered showers along this trough. 


A second vertically stacked low will move to the Alaska Peninsula 
by 4pm Monday and to King Salmon by 4pm Tuesday with a front moving to 
Bethel-McGrath-Anchorage by 4pm Tuesday. This will bring a second 
round of Chinook winds to the Alaska Range late Monday night into Tuesday. 
Will see some rain along the front outside of the Chinook area. 


With 850 mb temperatures a degree or so warmer today than Sat but 
also increased cloud cover, expect todays highs to be similar to Sat. 


Surface high pressure north of the Arctic coast and over the 
Bering will persist through Tuesday. This will cause stratus and fog 
conditions to remain through Tuesday in same areas as it exists now. 


A cold front well north of the the Arctic coast will move south to 
lie along the Arctic coast of Alaska Monday night to the the Brooks 
range Tuesday. May see some flurries with this. 


&& 


Discussion... 
models initialize well and show similar solutions through 4pm sun. 
After that the GFS is more progressive than the NAM moving 
features a bit faster than the NAM. Prefer the faster GFS as the 
pattern is fairly energetic and appears to be moving a bit faster 
than models at moment. 




Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none 


&& 


Fire weather... 
windy along the Alaska Range sun and Tuesday but rh's will be above 40% 
so no need for red flag. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
none. 


&& 


Afg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Small Craft Advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225. 
&& 


$$ 


Jb Sep 08 

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