406 
fxak69 pafg 071442 
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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska 
642 am akdt Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Discussion... 


Long wave trough aloft over the forecast area will persist 
through Wednesday night...then rapidly lifting out and weakening Thursday 
as a surge of moderate to strong southerly flow sets up over the 
central and eastern interior. This southerly flow will bring 
warmer temperatures aloft over the Alaska Range and eastern 
interior by late Thursday night or Friday...with 850 mb temperatures 
approaching 0c. 


982 mb low near the north coast of Banks Island will deepen 
some during the next 12 hour...remaining quasistationary 
through 12z Wednesday...weakening as at moves northeast into the 
high Arctic. 


Over the eastern Arctic coast...GFS and European model (ecmwf) are preferred 
over the NAM which indicating a zone of tighter pressure 
gradient near the eastern Arctic coast. 06z surface analysis 
supports the GFS/European model (ecmwf) pressure pattern. No surface winds 
available from paba-cwkm- cyua...GFS MOS winds for paba are 
considerably less than the NAM MOS and look more realistic. 


Will extend the heavy surf advisory for akz204 through 
tonight...no new information available but brisk west to 
southwest winds are expected to continue through tonight... 
gradually diminishing Wednesday and Wednesday night. 


A strong surface low and its associated front is prognosticated 
to move into the southern Bering by 12z Thursday. Only small 
differences at 12z Thursday between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) solutions... 
a blend of these two models looks like the best forecast. 
Northeasterly gales developing in pkz210 early Thursday morning 
spreading to pkz200 Thursday afternoon...and to pkz220-pkz225 Thursday 
night. Strong northeast winds also likely over nearby land areas 
in the West Coast. 


Chinook winds developing in the Alaska Range Thursday...likely 
continuing into Sat. Good wind support aloft...and winds 
in passes likely to reach advisory level at the normally windy 
spots. Temperatures over much of the interior will be 
noticeably warmer Fri-Sat-sun...high temperatures in the 
Fairbanks area likely to approach 40. 


A colder pattern is likely to return by early next week with 
the weakening of the southerly flow and a return of dominant 
low pressure aloft. 




Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...northeasterly 
gales developing over much of the West Coast Thursday night 
continuing Friday. 




&& 


Hydrology...none. 




&& 


Afg watches/warnings/advisories... 
high surf advisory for akz204. 


Small Craft Advisory for pkz235-pkz240. 


Gale Warning for pkz245. 


Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz240-pkz245. 


&& 


$$ 


Rf Oct 08 

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