440 
fxak68 pafc 071230 
afdafc 


Area forecast discussion 
southcentral and southwest Alaska 
430 am akdt sun Sep 7 2008 


Analysis and upper levels...upper low and associated surface low near 
Chignik this morning will lift north and weaken through the day. The 
associated frontal boundary will crash onto the north Gulf Coast this 
afternoon continuing the gusty east-west gaps winds. 


Short term forecast...the GFS once again provided excellent guidance 
through early next week with few changes needed. Heavy rain will 
begin to wind down along the north Gulf Coast this morning as the 
front crashes onshore and begins to weaken. The upper trough swings 
through tonight continuing the shower threat. Weak ridging creeps 
along the north Gulf Coast on Monday ahead of the next North Pacific 
low. Winds begin to increase again with rain spreading into Kodiak 
Island and SW Alaska Monday morning. Unlike its predecessor...this 
next low is expected to move quicker and cross the akpenn...then 
stall in Bristol Bay. A persistent southerly fetch will set the stage 
for more potentially heavy rains (and localized flooding) along the 
north Gulf Coast Monday night and Tuesday. Meanwhile...high pressure 
takes control over the western and central Bering Sea on Monday and 
holds through at least Tuesday with the usual fog and stratus. 


Long term forecast...the low in Bristol Bay is expected to drift 
across the Gulf of Alaska through Thursday. This scenario spells 
continued wet conditions. A moderately strong low is prognosticated to 
approach the western Aleutians on Wednesday...dropping south of the chain 
then possibility turn toward the akpenn by weeks end. 


Aer/alu...watch/warning summary 
public...flood advisory 125. 
Marine...gale 120 125 130 132 140 150 155 351 352. 
Fire weather...none. 


Jca 

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