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Area forecast discussion 
southcentral and southwest Alaska 
500 am akdt Wednesday Mar 17 2010 


Analysis and upper levels... 


Upper level ridge extends across the central Bering and over interior 
Alaska this morning. Closed upper lows are over the western Gulf and 
Kamchatka. At the surface...lows are just east of the Kamchatka 
peninsula and over Southeast Alaska...with high pressure over Mainland Alaska 
extending over the eastern Aleutians. A weather front is over the 
western Bering moving slowly east. 


Model discussion... 


Models are in good agreement through Thursday with the Bering front 
reaching the West Coast of Alaska before dissipating Thursday afternoon...a 
North Pacific low weakening as it approaches Kodiak Island in the 
same time frame...and an associated weather front moving into the 
southern Gulf Wednesday night and reaching the northeastern Gulf Coast Thursday 
night. At this time the ec becomes the more consistent model. The 
forecast is a blend of the GFS through Friday...the ec through the 
weekend and HPC guidance early next week. 


Short term forecast... 


In the west...gales and some storm force winds will precede the front 
as it moves east today and tonight. Rain and snow will change to snow 
showers behind the front...which should reach the eastern Aleutians 
Thursday. On Friday and Sat a weak front moves across the chain with rain and 
snow before dissipating Sat night. 


For southwest Alaska...clear and dry conditions today will give way to 
some snow showers Thursday as a North Pacific low pushes to the Alaska Peninsula and 
then dissipates. High pressure builds in Sat...ending any lingering 
snow showers. 


South and east of the Alaska Peninsula...clear and dry conditions are expected 
through this evening...with the exception of snow shower activity 
over the Wrangell Mountains. Onshore flow begins Wednesday night as the 
front associated with the North Pacific low approaches the coast. 
Rain and snow showers Thursday will be limited to coastal areas with more 
reaching west and north of the chugach and Kenai Mountains on Friday and 
Sat. 


Long term forecast... 


In the west...ridging will end precipitation sun but another front 
will bring snow and rain to the Western Islands Monday and Tuesday. Clear 
and dry conditions will persist over southwest Alaska into Tuesday. Southeast 
Alaska showers will end sun as high pressure builds in for the 
beginning of the week. 


Aer/alu...watch/warning summary 
public...none 
marine...gales 120 130 132 172 175 176 185 
fire weather...none 


Ds Mar 10 

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