720 
fxak67 pajk 292001 
afdajk 


Southeast Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska 
1201 PM akdt Friday Aug 29 2008 


Short term...weak low that passed over the Queen Charlotte 
islands last night now deepening as it moves across southern half 
of b.C. Today. A weak residual low is still spinning in southeast 
Gulf but will move off to the south through this evening. An 
upper level trough over the central Yukon will push south through 
tonight and move from northern Southeast Alaska early Saturday to 
southern Southeast Alaska Saturday afternoon. A fairly high 
amplitude ridge at surface and aloft builds into the central Gulf 
on Saturday. 


Radar showing scattered showers across the eastern Gulf this 
morning. These showers are moving south and probably will not be 
south of our area until this evening. Some of the showers should 
wrap around residual low in southeast Gulf and into southern 
zones where will continue to hold a chance of showers into 
tonight. Surface observations showing that plenty of low level 
moisture is entrenched through the Inner Channels that will 
slowly lift through the day. For the Inner Channels...surface 
winds to remain light through tonight and with a few breaks in 
cloud cover and cooler temperatures...will likely see patchy fog 
across much of Southeast Alaska late tonight into early Saturday. 
Northwest gradients tighten up for smcr over the eastern Gulf as 
ridge moves to central Gulf and residual low moves to b.C. Coast. 


As upper trough drops south through Panhandle on Saturday will 
have a new chance of showers spreading from north to south 
through the Panhandle. Once trough moves through winds turn 
offshore and expect clouds to decrease with partly cloudy 
conditions across northern third by Saturday afternoon and 
probably continuing into Saturday night. With some sunshine 
should see temperatures reach into the lower 60s north to near 60 
south. 


Long term...a ridge located over the East Gulf Sat night will shift 
east across the Panhandle sun. A low over the North Pacific will track to just 
S of Kodiak Island sun with an associated front pushing across 
Gulf. The front is expected to reach the outer coast Sunday night 
then make slow progress inland through the beginning of next week. 


Model confidence increased today as model consistency continues 
to improve between the GFS and European model (ecmwf). The models continue to have 
their differences in timing and intensity past Monday. After 
consulting with pafc...concluded 29/12z GFS was the best model 
through Monday night then blended over to the 29/00z ec solution. 


Sat and sun continue to look relatively dry for most of the 
Panhandle. Probability of precipitation increase over yak Sun afternoon with the majority 
of the Panhandle seeing rain likely by Sun night as the front 
reaches the coast. Conditions will remain wet early next week with 
the possibility of some drying by Wednesday. Winds expected to remain 
light inland through the beginning of next week. As the front 
approaches...winds expected to increase to east-southeast maximum Small Craft Advisory along the 
outer waters for pkz043 and 051-052 Sun night. 




&& 


Ajk watches/warnings/advisories... 
public...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for pkz041>043. 


&& 


$$ 


Mm/mam 

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