123 
fxak67 pajk 162303 
afdajk 


Southeast Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska 
303 PM akdt Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Short term...satellite reveals an occluded low pressure system 
approximately 300 nm south of Queen Charlotte island with 
associated front moving through the southern zones at this time. Middle and 
high level clouds expanding northward into the central and 
northern Panhandle ahead of the front bringing an end to mostly 
sunny conditions in those areas. 


VFR conditions in the central zones and MVFR conditions in the 
southern zones. Fog dense at times burned off by late morning in 
wind sheltered locations but should not be a concern tonight in 
the central and southern zones with increasing middle and high level 
clouds precipitation and increasing pressure gradient but could redevelop 
early tonight in wind sheltered locations from pajn and points 
northward 


Winds are the primary concern overnight with gale conditions 
developing in the northern Lynn Canal this evening and Clarence 
Strait tonight. Taku winds in Juneau and in Douglas pick up this 
evening with 35 knots cross barrier flow and 600 mb critical level 
with reversing flow this evening. Inversion strength is 
questionable especially with system moving in from the south. 
Expect intermittent advisory level gusts in downtown Juneau and 
Douglas this evening and overnight. Wind Advisory hoisted for 4 PM 
this evening through 4 am tomorrow morning. 


Models in good agreement this morning with nam12 preferred with 
its better terrain resolution and better handling of local 
effects. Forecast confidence is above average through the short 
term. 






&& 


Long term...a ridge of high pressure builds over the Panhandle 
area and British Columbia while low pressure remains out over the 
western Gulf and the Pacific. The upper level low pattern will be 
keeping the flow pattern into the southern portion of the state. 
The ridge looks like it will hold in place long enough to keep the 
Panhandle fairly dry into the weekend. 


Models differ a little on a system for Saturday evening but not 
seeing any major storms into next week. 


Leaned towards the European model (ecmwf) and then HPC solution for grid 
modifications. Forecaster confidence is average into the weekend. 




Ajk watches/warnings/advisories... 
public...Wind Advisory until 4 am akdt Wednesday for akz025. 
Marine...Gale Warning for pkz012. 
Small Craft Advisory for pkz011-013-036-041-042-052. 
Small Craft Advisory due to seas for pkz022-043-051. 


&& 


$$ 


Ccc/bezenek 

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