799 
fxus64 kbmx 292017 
afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
317 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Discussion. 


All the forecast attention continues to go towards Gustav. Still 
some uncertainty in the forecast track...however the picture will 
get hopefully clearer as we go through the weekend. Still playing 
rather conservative Ball...keeping probability of precipitation and winds on the lower 
end. This is in line with the current NHC forecast track. If 
things begin deviating eastward...the situation and forecast will 
obviously change dramatically. As far as spin-up 
tornadoes...thinking with the official track...we will be on the 
outside looking in...with a small exception possibly in the 
extreme southwestern counties. 


For a change of pace...lets talk about a possible scenario that 
would bring Gustav closer to Alabama. Every discussion point and 
general meteorological situation has referred to the strong high 
pressure building in across the Great Lakes and New England. 
Obviously this will be the dominate steering player...but I would 
suggest that beyond this ridge...that we should take a peak at the 
weak upper low developing across Florida and retrogrades westward 
across the Gulf. This minor player could act to steer the system 
directly into the high pressure. This would be an interesting 
cause and effect as it would act to slow Gustav down enough to 
allow the steering high to move further east and Gustave to shoot 
The Gap closer to the eastern side of The Cone of uncertainty. 
Weve seen somewhat similar forecast track with Rita just a few 
short years ago. Again...this is a way outside scenario...and only 
something that can be cooked up by getting down and dirty with the 
small level model details. To bring it back to the sensible 
weather here...not anticipating a major impact with Gustav...but 
as always it will be well Worth watching. 


17/klaws 


&& 


Aviation...18z taf discussion. 


VFR conditions expected through 08z. A few isolated showers 
possible through 01z. From 08z through 14z patchy fog will once 
again develop with visibilities 3 to 5 miles. After 14z VFR conditions 
will prevail. 


50 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 64 93 67 92 67 / 10 20 10 20 10 
Anniston 65 92 68 91 69 / 10 20 10 20 10 
Birmingham 66 94 69 92 69 / 10 20 10 20 10 
Tuscaloosa 68 95 71 94 71 / 10 20 10 20 20 
Calera 67 93 69 91 69 / 10 20 10 20 20 
Auburn 67 92 70 89 70 / 10 20 10 20 20 
Montgomery 70 94 73 92 73 / 10 20 10 20 20 
Troy 67 92 70 90 70 / 10 20 10 20 30 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


17/17/50