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fxus64 kbmx 112330 
afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
630 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Update...for aviation. 


&& 


Short term...tonight through Monday night. 


Upper low centered over the South Carolina coast will move slowly 
southwest through the period. East to southeast low level flow will 
persist...allowing limited Gulf and Atlantic moisture to be 
transported into the area. Will mention a slight chance of 
showers across the extreme eastern sections tonight...then mainly a 
slight chance of showers area-wide the remainder of the period. 
Any rain that does occur will be very light...with only one tenth of 
an inch or less expected. Main affect from this system will be 
continued low and middle level cloudiness. Overnight lows will remain 
in the 60s. Highs on Sunday lower 70s east to upper 70s west. 
Highs on Monday upper 70s east to lower 80s west. 


Long term...Tuesday through Saturday. 


Tuesday and Wednesday...high pressure will build into the area. 
Will forecast dry conditions and a nice warm up due to less clouds 
and more sun. Highs each day in the lower to middle 80s. 


Thursday through Saturday...weak cold front will approach from the 
northwest on Thursday and then gradually dissipates across the 
northern sections later Thursday night or early Friday. High 
pressure then builds in from the west Friday through Saturday. 
With only limited moisture indicated with this front...will keep 
probability of precipitation in the slight chance category for mainly Thursday and Thursday 
night. Still no cool or cold air in sight and afternoon readings 
will warm into the 80 to 85 degree range each day. 


&& 


Aviation...00z taf discussion. 


Broken deck across the northern terminals...although ceiling heights 
will generally remain between 3-4kft region-wide through 5 to 7z. 
Clouds will fill back in again after 6z from east to west...with a 
overcast deck between 2-3kft. Currently...looks like ceilings will not 
drop below MVFR. Ceilings remain low through 21z. Northern terminals 
will see more a return to the 3-4kft by the afternoon. Another 
concern will be winds after 15z and into the afternoon. Look for 
sustained winds of 10 to 13 kts with higher gusts possible. 


16 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$