727 
fxus62 ktae 170051 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
851 PM EDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Update...clouds will be on the increase overnight as upper low 
moves into the northwestern Gulf and southwest flow increases 
over the region. Regional radar mosaic is showing light rain 
developing near the mouth of the Mississippi. This precipitation will 
spread steadily northeast overnight...reaching the western County Warning Area 
after midnight. Overnight forecast is in good shape with no 
changes planned. 


Guidance is now indicating a good swath of deep moisture and lift 
moving across the region tomorrow morning and afternoon. Have 
bumped up the probability of precipitation for these periods to reflect this higher 
confidence. 


&& 


Aviation...an upper level disturbance will approach from the 
west overnight and park itself overhead during much of Wednesday. 
VFR conditions will prevail through at least the first half of the 
night...however clouds will be thickening and lowering. MVFR ceilings 
and the first showers will begin to overspread from west to east 
during the pre-dawn hours with restrictions likely holding off 
around kaby and kvld till near sunrise. Much of the daylight hours 
of Wednesday will see MVFR ceilings between 1000-2000 feet and scattered- 
numerous (mainly light) showers. A few periods of IFR ceilings can not be 
ruled out...but will hold off on including this lower category 
until confidence becomes higher and since any IFR conditions 
remains more than 12 hours away. Late in the afternoon the showers 
should begin to taper off for the western terminals of kpfn and 
kdhn...however lingering MVFR ceilings are likely through the end of 
the taf cycle. 


&& 


Marine...gradient forecast to remain generally weak as broad low 
pressure develops over the coastal waters tonight and Wednesday. 
No significant changes planned to the marine forecast. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Tallahassee 44 62 43 64 42 / 30 70 30 20 0 
Panama City 50 62 47 64 49 / 40 70 20 20 10 
Dothan 47 59 43 62 42 / 20 70 20 20 0 
Albany 45 59 45 64 42 / 10 70 30 20 0 
Valdosta 45 62 43 63 44 / 10 70 40 20 0 
Cross City 44 65 41 65 42 / 20 70 40 20 0 
Apalachicola 47 62 44 63 46 / 40 70 20 20 0 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Camp/mroczka