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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
930 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Update...just sent out new updated grids and zone forecast for the 
overnight hours. Increased to mostly cloudy to cloudy for remainder 
of the night as satellite shows extensive cloud cover streaming in 
from the east. Light northeasterly wind flow will also continue overnight. 
With the clouds and wind...also opted to increase min temperatures 
slightly...especially over interior zones. Over the marine 
area...will maintain the scec on evening coastal waters update. 12/ds 


&& 


Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...surface high pressure 
will ridge southwest across forecast area into next week. This will 
maintain a general east to northeast wind through Tuesday...bringing 
in Atlantic moisture into the region. 500 millibar low off the 
southeast coast this morning will weaken as it drifts to the west 
across the northern Gulf and south of the surface ridge. Previous 
shift had areas of drizzle the next few nights and with the moist 
low levels and the drier air aloft...in conjunction with the weak 
isentropic lift...could see some drizzle later tonight. Will not 
need probability of precipitation in zones with trace amounts of drizzle. Went ahead and 
mentioned patchy fog in some of the zones with the drizzle 
forecast...but think the easterly winds will be up enough to prevent 
any serious visibility restrictions. Drier air will arrive later 
Monday as the upper low flattens out and dissipates to the 
west...will have low probability of precipitation into Tuesday with the remains of the upper 
trough passing south of forecast area. Temperatures warm back up 
Sunday into Tuesday. /11 


&& 


Long term (wednesday through saturday)...morning temperature 
guidance has the high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s 
Wednesday through Saturday but the ensembles keep it a few degrees 
cooler. The middle 80s in the forecast is about 3 to 5 degrees above 
normal for this time of year anyway. Will leave the slight chance 
of showers from the preious shift for mainly the afternoons through 
the long term. /11 


&& 


Aviation...(for 18z forecast)surge stratus will bump ceilings down into 
IFR levels most of the area through tonight. Some concern with the 
possibility of winds settling more than guidance is advertising and 
getting into livr cigs/viz. /16 


&& 


Marine...shortwave over the Carolinas will push west north of the 
Gulf Coast to the southern miss River Valley by Monday...weakening 
as to GOES and allowing surface high pressure over New England to 
push southward...to over the southeastern Continental U.S. By Wednesday. 
Guidance is advertising a tight gradient over Alabama/northwest Florida coastal 
waters as the surface high pushes south...especially offshore. NAM 
is advertising a significantly tighter gradient...with some marine 
MOS locations bumping gales. Have gone with a blended approach... 
with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely later Sunday night into Monday. /16 


&& 


Fire weather...no problems seen in the short term with 
humidity...other than being near a hundred percent in the late 
nights. Night time dispersions values may actually be above average 
Sunday night(above 6)due to a bit more wind. /11 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 65 82 68 83 / 05 10 10 20 
Pensacola 67 82 69 82 / 05 10 20 20 
Destin 69 82 71 83 / 05 10 20 20 
Evergreen 62 80 64 84 / 05 10 10 20 
Waynesboro 60 80 63 82 / 00 05 05 20 
Camden 61 79 64 83 / 05 10 10 20 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$