897 
fxus64 kbmx 071129 
afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
457 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Update...aviation discussion. 


&& 


Discussion...big weather picture still focused on the tropics... 
but as Hanna weakens and races into the Canadian Maritimes...Ike 
continues to churn and burn across the tropical Atlantic...headed 
for the Gulf of Mexico. 


A few formalities regarding the next few days before we get into 
details on Ike. Patchy dense fog should burn off by middle morning 
today...followed by mostly sunny skies and seasonably warm temperatures 
around 90 and into the lower 90s for most folks. Just a sliver of 
slight chance probability of precipitation in the extreme southeast...where the lingering 
surface boundary may trigger some action. Monday...with high 
pressure building to the Atlantic coast on the heels of Hanna... 
expect to see a wedge front/easterly flow set up. Models are in 
agreement hinting at precipitation chances with this boundary...and see 
no reason to go against this trend. The Wedge boundary works into 
western portions late Monday...then stalls and eventually morphs 
into a a fairly Stout cold front approaching from the west on 
Tuesday. Big question for Tuesday will be where the subsidence 
area from Ike sets up...and how far southeast the shower/ 
thunderstorm action will make it. Right now I am betting on the 
subsidence area working into the southeast...putting the kabash on 
activity along and southeast of Interstate 85. 


Currently passing through the southern Bahamas north of 
Hispaniola...Ike is slated to enter the Gulf of Mexico sometime 
late on Tuesday and into early Wednesday. With a fairly active 
band of westerlies stretching down into the middle of the 
country...believe the ultimate factor in Ikes path will wind up 
being related to the strength/timing of systems in the northern 
branch. Over the last two days...models have been consistent in 
this one thing...that Ike will continue mainly westward until 
being caught up in the westerlies. Unfortunately...there still 
remains a wide range of solutions between the GFS/Euro/NOGAPS and 
Canadian models. Right now the two basic camps suggest either 
building of the subtropical ridge in the western Gulf...which 
either stall Ike or turn him to the right towards the central Gulf 
Coast...or take Ike to the western Gulf and inland before 
recurvature. Confidence in the track at and beyond day 5 is still 
not that high...with both solutions above viable. 


As far as affects on central Alabama...right now it looks like we 
will be sandwiched between the northerly flow and the outer 
fringes of Ike for the moment...with a bit of a weak subtropical 
ridge axis overhead. On the current track...do not believe our 
rain chances are all that great...but the effects of the outer 
bands and interactions with the subsidence zone and Continental 
air mass make for a tricky pop forecast. Temperatures should be 
near or just above normal through the period. 


Jd/81 


&& 


Aviation...12z taf discussion. 


Dense fog is limiting visibility to less than 1/4 mile across much 
of central Alabama this morning. Conditions will improve rapidly 
after 14z and VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the 
forecast period. 


12/sirmon 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 90 61 91 66 87 / 0 10 10 20 40 
Anniston 90 64 91 69 87 / 0 10 10 20 30 
Birmingham 90 65 91 70 88 / 0 10 10 20 50 
Tuscaloosa 92 64 92 69 89 / 0 10 10 20 40 
Calera 91 66 91 69 88 / 0 10 10 20 40 
Auburn 90 69 90 67 87 / 10 0 20 20 20 
Montgomery 93 68 93 69 90 / 0 0 20 20 20 
Troy 91 68 92 69 90 / 10 0 20 20 20 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories... 
dense fog advisory all zones through 9 am for patchy dense fog. 


&& 


$$ 


81/17