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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
1129 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Aviation... 
low clouds continue to dissipate across northern Arkansas...but some 
scattered clouds will make it into central Arkansas this afternoon. 
A middle cloud deck over Missouri and Kansas will move through later 
this afternoon and evening...but VFR conditions will prevail. Winds 
will be gusty this afternoon...before lessening as high pressure 
moves in overnight. 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1030 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008/ 


Discussion... 
earlier update for a bit more clouds over northern Arkansas. Overall 
forecast on track with cold front sagging through Arkansas...and currently 
over southern areas...roughly from kllq...to kcdh...to near ktxk. 
Much colder air is lagging a bit over northern Arkansas due to Ozarks. 
Wind shift to north to northeast noted at 10 to 20 miles per hour. Expecting 
some isolated gusts to over 20 miles per hour...but will be isolated enough at 
this time not to reach lake Wind Advisory levels. Stratus clouds 
showing signs of thinning over norther Arkansas...while additional stratus 
and some middle clouds over central Kansas to central MO. Due to dry 
atmosphere lower clouds should thin...but will have to monitor. Will 
issued late morning update to fine tune cloud cover...temperatures and 
winds in forecast. Also due to possible hard freeze temperatures expected 
Friday and Saturday mornings over northern to parts of north central 
Arkansas...will issue a statement for this. Freeze warnings have ended for 
the season...unless other factors present. (59) 


Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008/ 


Short term...today through Sunday night 
middle level ridge continues to flatten out across the southwest with a 
trough over the northeast. This trough will deepen over the next 24 
hours and help to assist a dry cold front as it pushes south 
through the middle south. No precipitation is expected with the 
frontal passage...however winds will pick up behind the exiting boundary as 
the pressure gradient increases...especially in the northern half 
of the County Warning Area. Increased wind grids through the afternoon and 
overnight...with sustained winds between 10 and 15 miles per hour...with 
gusts near 20 miles per hour. Parts of the north could see gusts near 25 
miles per hour. 


Temperatures will be noticeably cooler over the next few days as 
cool Canadian air reinstates itself over the forecast area. By late 
Friday...surface high will shift east of the region and southerly 
flow will return. This will bring temperatures back to normal readings 
through the end of the short term. 


Kept slight probability of precipitation in for Sunday as Gulf moisture filters in ahead of 
next frontal system...prognosticated to move through late in the weekend. 


Long term...Monday through Wednesday 
models remain in good agreement...a trend that continues from this 
time last night. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf)...with support of the other 
medium range models...agree in moving a middle level trough through the 
area Sunday night/early Monday. There remains some discrepancy with 
the next upstream system but differences would not effect our 
sensible weather this period. With models remaining in good 
agreement...will continue to go with a blend of forecast solutions 
with a lean towards the more consistent European model (ecmwf). 


Models agree that surface low pressure will be located over the 
Upper Michigan peninsula with attendant cold front roughly bisecting 
the state from west to east when the period initiates. Best moisture 
south of the boundary by this point and will continue chance probability of precipitation 
across the south Monday morning and taper them off to the north. 
Boundary should clear the state by early afternoon as building high 
pressure pushes the boundary south. 


High will settle over the state Tuesday before sliding off to the 
east om Wednesday with dry conditions expected. Moisture will begin 
to increase Wednesday night over the west as the next system moves 
into the southwest Continental U.S. But no precipitation expected at this 
point. Near normal or even slightly above normal temperatures 
expected Monday with another reinforcing shot of colder air coming 
in for days six and seven. Mav/mex numbers look reasonable and are 
generally accepted. 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Aviation...58