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fxus64 klzk 170547 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
1247 am CDT Wednesday Mar 17 2010 


Aviation... 
weak upper level low pressure will move through western Arkansas 
during the period but only widely scattered showers are expected. 
MVFR to VFR conditions are expected over the north for most of the 
period with low level moisture remaining trapped. Conditions will 
slowly improve with time. VFR to occasional MVFR conditions are 
expected across the remainder of the terminals through the period. 
North to northeast flow will continue. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 305 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010/ 


Short term...tonight through Friday night 
clouds will break up somewhat this evening before a storm system 
aloft approaches from Iowa. The system will head to the 
south...and will enter northern Arkansas by Wednesday afternoon. 
Clouds will thicken once again...with small chances for rain 
through the evening hours. Quantitative precipitation forecast is under one tenth of inch. 


The system will exit to the southeast...with weak high pressure 
following from the plains on Thursday with more sunshine. This 
will be the start of a brief warming trend. 


The warmest weather of the period will come on Friday as high 
pressure departs...and breezy southerly winds develop ahead of a 
new storm system in the Texas Panhandle. 


The new system will move rapidly to the northeast...and will be in 
northeast Oklahoma as the period ends. The system will bring 
chances for showers to the northwest half of Arkansas Friday 
night. 


Long term...Saturday through Tuesday 
upper low will be pushing into the state at the start of the 
period...with associated cold front moving through in the Sat/sun 
time frame. GFS much faster than the European model (ecmwf)...with slight probability of precipitation 
lingering into Sunday. Colder air will wrap around departing low 
early Sunday with chance of -sn/rain mix across the north. Temperatures will 
fall down well below normal through the weekend with Sunday as the 
coolest with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s. Dry 
conditions will return Monday/Tuesday...with temperatures moderating back 
up to normal levels by Tuesday as ridging takes place along the 
Gulf. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 42 65 45 70 / 20 0 10 10 
Camden Arkansas 44 68 46 72 / 20 0 10 10 
Harrison Arkansas 37 61 43 67 / 10 0 10 10 
Hot Springs Arkansas 41 66 45 71 / 20 0 10 10 
Little Rock Arkansas 42 66 45 71 / 20 0 10 10 
Monticello Arkansas 44 67 46 71 / 20 0 0 10 
Mount Ida Arkansas 39 64 45 69 / 20 0 10 10 
Mountain Home Arkansas 39 64 43 69 / 10 0 10 10 
Newport Arkansas 42 65 45 70 / 20 0 10 10 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 43 66 46 71 / 20 0 0 10 
Russellville Arkansas 39 66 43 71 / 20 0 10 10 
Searcy Arkansas 41 66 45 70 / 20 0 10 10 
Stuttgart Arkansas 43 65 46 70 / 20 0 0 10 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...62 / long term...56 
aviation...56