651 
fxus64 ktsa 201131 
afdtsa 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK 
531 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Discussion... 


&& 


Aviation... 
strong cold front is moving across the area and north winds will 
gust to around 25 knots behind the front today before diminishing 
around sunset. A period of occasional MVFR ceilings may affect the 
northern taf sites this morning before skies clear by late 
morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 305 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008/ 


Discussion... 
cold air which initially lagged the frontal wind shift has now 
pushed into northeast Oklahoma...with a persistent region of 
moderate pressure rises noted and indicative of a continued 
southward advance along with a period of gusty northerly winds. 
Sharply colder temperatures are expected today especially across 
northeast Oklahoma where the cold advection will be most 
pronounced...and where 24hr temperature changes will be near 25 degrees. 
The gusty winds will also provide a sharp wind chill further 
marking the cool down. Center of strong surface high to slide nearer 
the region by tonight and forecast sided toward the cool side of 
guidance...with temperatures into the upper teens likely across 
far northwest Arkansas. 


Limited warming is expected on Friday despite full sun as a cold 
start to the day couples with minimal mixing under the influence 
of the dominate high pressure. Winds will attempt to become more 
southerly Friday night however another cold night is expected 
especially over eastern locations. 


Southerly winds increase and temperatures warm on Saturday ahead of the 
next cold front which will pass through the area late Sunday. Any 
moisture return will likely be minimal ahead of this 
front...however various models have remained consistent with light 
quantitative precipitation forecast thus low chances are retained in the forecast. 


A gradual warming trend is expected by middle next week with 
temperatures rising above normal just ahead of the next cold 
front. Current timing of this front is more consistent within the 
most recent set of data...and favors a frontal passage Thursday 
night into Friday with increasing chances of rain. 


&& 


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Arkansas...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Aviation...05