243 
fxus64 kmeg 200528 
afdmeg 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 
1128 PM CST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Update... 
updated for aviation discussion 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 951 PM CST Wednesday Nov 19 2008/ 


Update... 


Clear skies and light winds prevail across the middle south this 
evening. Temperatures have dropped into the lower 40s across the region 
this evening with the colder spots along the Tennessee River down 
into the 30s. A cold front stretches from the Great Lakes to St 
Louis into northwest Oklahoma this evening. This front will begin 
moving into the middle south by morning shifting the winds back 
around to the north and ushering in another round of below normal 
temperatures. Forecast on track with no updates planned. 


Sjm 


Previous discussion... /issued 336 PM CST Wednesday Nov 19 2008/ 


Discussion... 


Upper level troughing persists over the eastern U.S. This 
afternoon with fast northwest flow aloft persisting. At the 
surface...Canadian high pressure has moved to our east and this 
has allowed for brisk return low flow from the south. Temperatures 
have warmed this afternoon into the upper 50s across southern 
locations to the lower 50s across northern counties. Expect gusty 
southwest winds to diminish later this evening with decreased 
mixing. Temperatures should remain several degrees warmer than 
last night with continued warm advection and light southwest winds 
continuing. 


A northern stream shortwave positioned over southern Saskatchewan 
Canada this afternoon will race southeastward tonight and send 
another strong cold front southward through the middle south on 
Thursday. Lack of moisture in advance of the front will keep 
conditions dry...but this front will usher in another unseasonably 
cold airmass for later Thursday night into the first part of the 
weekend. Gusty north winds can also be expected behind the frontal 
passage. Temperatures on Friday will struggle to reach the middle 
40s south across Mississippi with highs remaining in the upper 30s 
over northern portions of the forecast area. This Canadian airmass 
will remain in place through the weekend with temperatures only 
slowly moderating through Sunday. Even with the 
moderation...temperatures will remain several degrees below 
average. Dry weather will also persist through the 
weekend...although a few clouds may develop on Saturday afternoon 
as a second weak northern stream shortwave drops out of the 
northern plains and skirts to the north of our area. 


By early next week...conditions will turn increasingly wet as an 
overrunning pattern sets up over our region. Moisture will return 
to our area from the western Gulf of Mexico ahead of yet another 
approaching shortwave and associated cold front by Sunday night. 
This moisture will overrun a retreating polar airmass over the 
region. Clouds will be on the increase on Sunday afternoon with 
light rain chances returning Sunday night and Monday as the front 
slowly moves southeast across the forecast area. Dry and continued 
below average temperatures will follow the Monday front for the 
middle of next week. 


&& 


Aviation... 
06z taf cycle 


Skies remain clear over the forecast area. Cold front moving into 
northwest corner of forecast area and will continue to move 
southeast during the overnight hours. Expect winds to shift to 
northwest behind cold front and increase during the day on 
Thursday. There could be some gusty winds as well. Some scattered 
clouds behind the front are possible. 


Ars 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mem 38 54 29 44 / 0 0 0 0 
mkl 33 50 25 41 / 0 0 0 0 
jbr 38 51 26 42 / 0 0 0 0 
tup 34 55 29 46 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Meg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
MO...none. 
MS...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$