682 
fxus64 klzk 180850 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
348 am CDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


Short term...today through Sunday 
several dry and pleasant days are expected across the middle south 
before attention turns to the next...possibly significant...weather 
maker forecast to come in early in the weekend. NAM solution 
appears to be the outlier this morning as it lacks a significant 
primary low with the advancing system while all other short range 
models pick up on this feature. GFS/European model (ecmwf) solutions both trending 
towards a slightly slower solution and will blend these two models 
this morning. Will lean towards the ecwmf which has been the most 
consistent model in spite of the problems it appeared to have last 
night. 


Moisture channel imagery depicts weak upper level low pressure over 
central Louisiana where it is expected to continue to shear out and 
move away from the state. Cloud cover continues to dissipate this 
morning but enough low level moisture remains that patchy fog will 
remain possible through middle morning. 


As weak upper system continues to depart the area...it will be 
replaced by upper ridging building in from the Central Plains. 
Surface high pressure will accompany the ridge with southerly flow 
returning later in the day as the high moves to the east of the 
state. Ridging will push to the east of the state on Friday with 
pronounced southerly flow bringing temperatures back into the 70s 
area wide. 


Next system...visible on moisture imagery over the Pacific northwest 
at this time...is expected to dig south/southeast into the western 
High Plains by late Friday. Surface low pressure will be located at 
over the Texas Panhandle at this time with associated cold front 
trailing off the parent low. Low expected to move to the northeast 
dragging a cold front through the area Saturday as the upper trough 
digs to the south/southeast. Severe potential not overly great with 
limited moisture return and instability is lacking. Still some 
concern over the far southeast but will take a wait and see approach 
at this point. 


Upper low will still have to travel across the north and models are 
indicating some rather chilly air with this feature. Will continue 
to mention a rain/snow mix across northern and western sections of 
the forecast area as feature moves through. We will be hard pressed 
to get any of the snow to accumulate with warm ground temperatures 
but I would not be surprised to see some wet accumulations on grassy 
areas. 


With models a little slower this morning...precipitation will linger 
well into Sunday as models continue to show moisture rotating around 
the upper low. High pressure will build into the region late in the 
period. Overall mav/mex numbers look reasonable through the period 
and are generally accepted. 
&& 


Long term...Monday through Wednesday night 
an upper low will be moving east through the Appalachians to begin 
the period. Northwest flow will be over Arkansas. Southwest flow 
will return Monday night as an upper low dives into the Desert 
Southwest. This low will move into Texas Wednesday night. 


Surface high pressure and dry air will be over Arkansas to begin the 
period. Moisture will return to the area Tuesday night as the high 
moves east. A cold front will be moving through the plains Tuesday 
night and Wednesday. As temperatures warm and instability increases 
chances for thunderstorms will increase as well Wednesday. Will 
continue chance probability of precipitation through Wednesday night. Temperatures will be 
warming through the period and generally above normal. 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 65 42 71 48 / 0 0 0 30 
Camden Arkansas 64 43 72 51 / 0 0 0 20 
Harrison Arkansas 63 40 70 46 / 0 0 10 40 
Hot Springs Arkansas 64 42 72 50 / 0 0 10 30 
Little Rock Arkansas 65 43 72 50 / 0 0 0 20 
Monticello Arkansas 66 43 72 51 / 0 0 0 20 
Mount Ida Arkansas 63 42 71 50 / 0 0 10 40 
Mountain Home Arkansas 64 41 71 47 / 0 0 10 40 
Newport Arkansas 66 42 71 48 / 0 0 0 20 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 65 43 72 51 / 0 0 0 20 
Russellville Arkansas 64 41 71 48 / 0 0 10 40 
Searcy Arkansas 65 42 72 49 / 0 0 0 20 
Stuttgart Arkansas 66 43 72 50 / 0 0 0 20 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...56 / long term...51