217 
fxus64 klzk 201140 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
540 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Aviation... 
cold front over the central part of the state will continue to 
move southward...exiting the region by early afternoon. Gusty 
north winds will develop in the wake of the front with gusts near 
25 miles per hour possible...especially over the north. The winds will begin to 
slowly subside after dark. A band of low clouds will overspread the 
area later this morning with occasional MVFR conditions as it passes 
through. Otherwise...widespread VFR conditions will prevail. Patchy 
fog will be possible around sunrise this morning. 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008/ 


Short term...today through Sunday night 
middle level ridge continues to flatten out across the southwest with a 
trough over the northeast. This trough will deepen over the next 24 
hours and help to assist a dry cold front as it pushes south 
through the middle south. No precipitation is expected with the 
frontal passage...however winds will pick up behind the exiting boundary as 
the pressure gradient increases...especially in the northern half 
of the County Warning Area. Increased wind grids through the afternoon and 
overnight...with sustained winds between 10 and 15 miles per hour...with 
gusts near 20 miles per hour. Parts of the north could see gusts near 25 
miles per hour. 


Temperatures will be noticeably cooler over the next few days as 
cool Canadian air reinstates itself over the forecast area. By late 
Friday...surface high will shift east of the region and southerly 
flow will return. This will bring temperatures back to normal readings 
through the end of the short term. 


Kept slight probability of precipitation in for Sunday as Gulf moisture filters in ahead of 
next frontal system...prognosticated to move through late in the weekend. 


Long term...Monday through Wednesday 
models remain in good agreement...a trend that continues from this 
time last night. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf)...with support of the other 
medium range models...agree in moving a middle level trough through the 
area Sunday night/early Monday. There remains some discrepancy with 
the next upstream system but differences would not effect our 
sensible weather this period. With models remaining in good 
agreement...will continue to go with a blend of forecast solutions 
with a lean towards the more consistent European model (ecmwf). 


Models agree that surface low pressure will be located over the 
Upper Michigan peninsula with attendant cold front roughly bisecting 
the state from west to east when the period initiates. Best moisture 
south of the boundary by this point and will continue chance probability of precipitation 
across the south Monday morning and taper them off to the north. 
Boundary should clear the state by early afternoon as building high 
pressure pushes the boundary south. 


High will settle over the state Tuesday before sliding off to the 
east om Wednesday with dry conditions expected. Moisture will begin 
to increase Wednesday night over the west as the next system moves 
into the southwest Continental U.S. But no precipitation expected at this 
point. Near normal or even slightly above normal temperatures 
expected Monday with another reinforcing shot of colder air coming 
in for days six and seven. Mav/mex numbers look reasonable and are 
generally accepted. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 47 23 44 25 / 0 0 0 0 
Camden Arkansas 63 32 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 
Harrison Arkansas 46 21 42 23 / 0 0 0 0 
Hot Springs Arkansas 59 30 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 
Little Rock Arkansas 54 29 47 26 / 0 0 0 0 
Monticello Arkansas 59 31 49 26 / 0 0 0 0 
Mount Ida Arkansas 59 30 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 
Mountain Home Arkansas 44 20 42 23 / 0 0 0 0 
Newport Arkansas 48 24 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 56 31 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 
Russellville Arkansas 52 26 47 24 / 0 0 0 0 
Searcy Arkansas 50 26 46 26 / 0 0 0 0 
Stuttgart Arkansas 53 29 46 27 / 0 0 0 0 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...61 / long term...56 
aviation...56