682 
fxus64 klzk 200512 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
1111 PM CST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Aviation... 
clear conditions and light winds will continue through the early 
morning hours. Winds will shift to northerly and will pick up in 
speed on Thursday...as a dry cold front pushes southward through the 
state. VFR conditions are expected through the period. 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 534 PM CST Wednesday Nov 19 2008/ 


Aviation... 
wind speeds have decreased during the early evening hours. Clear 
conditions and light winds are expected overnight. A wind shift 
and gusty winds will be in place Thursday...as a cold front pushes 
southward through the state. VFR conditions are expected through 
the period. 


Previous discussion... /issued 222 PM CST Wednesday Nov 19 2008/ 


Discussion... 
main concerns this forecast cycle are temperature forecast...then chances 
of rain with front late Sunday to Monday. 


Current surface ridge has moved east...allowing return flow back 
into Arkansas...with breezy conditions over many locations. Clear skies 
and a very dry atmosphere remain in place (12z klzk precipitation water 
0.40 inches)...while a south to southwest wind of 10 to 20 miles per hour with 
gusts to 25 miles per hour have set up this afternoon. Temperatures warming nicely 
back to normal to above normal values. Cold front to the northwest 
pushing into Kansas at this time...with only a wind shift and cold 
advection. Some stratus seen to the northeast closer to the 
surface low. Upper northwest flow continues over the Southern 
Plains. 


Short term...tonight through Saturday night 
overall models in good agreement with the cold front to sag 
through Arkansas after midnight...and Thursday morning. Low precipitation water 
values and low atmospheric relative humidity values expect to only develop some 
patchy clouds...a wind shift to the north...and good cold air 
advection. Surface high pressure dominates the pattern into the 
weekend... with dry...but quite cold temperatures. Temperatures to run 5 
to 10 degrees below normal...Friday and Saturday. Later Saturday 
to Sunday...the surface high does move east and allow a south flow 
and gradual warm up. 


Long term...Sunday through Wednesday 
low at 500 mb will slide from central Canada to the upper Great 
Lakes while deepening. Large ridge will build over The Rockies and 
the Great Plains all the while. High pressure at the surface to 
our east will be responding to the intensifying low. The return 
flow from that ridge will open up the Gulf of Mexico long enough 
to produce showers ahead of a cold front that will be moving 
across the forecast area Sunday night into Monday morning. Dry 
weather expected from Monday afternoon into Wednesday night. Temperatures 
will bounce up for Monday ahead of the front...then they will drop 
to slight below or near normal afterward. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 37 49 23 43 / 0 10 10 10 
Camden Arkansas 43 59 33 50 / 0 0 10 10 
Harrison Arkansas 34 50 21 42 / 0 10 10 10 
Hot Springs Arkansas 40 58 31 47 / 0 0 10 10 
Little Rock Arkansas 39 55 30 46 / 0 0 10 10 
Monticello Arkansas 43 58 32 48 / 0 0 10 10 
Mount Ida Arkansas 40 57 30 48 / 0 0 10 10 
Mountain Home Arkansas 34 49 20 42 / 0 10 10 10 
Newport Arkansas 37 50 25 43 / 0 10 10 10 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 40 57 32 47 / 0 0 10 10 
Russellville Arkansas 37 53 26 45 / 0 0 10 10 
Searcy Arkansas 37 52 27 44 / 0 0 10 10 
Stuttgart Arkansas 39 55 30 45 / 0 0 10 10 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...61 / long term...56 
aviation...56