580 
fxus64 ktsa 200454 
afdtsa 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK 
1054 PM CST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Aviation... 


Increase in northerly wind speeds behind main cold front continue to be 
the main concern for this taf period. Expect that gusts to approx 
20 kts should develop at tul/revise prior to 12z...with higher gusts 
developing and spreading to all sites between 15 and 19z. Gusts 
should drop off toward sunset...with sustained speeds dropping below 
10 kts as surface high nudges in. Some concern about current area of 
Post frontal MVFR stratocu in northern Kansas/northern MO spreading southward... 
however...current Sat trends indicate some dissipation... 
especially across Kansas...and cumulus rule does not support it spreading 
into OK/Arkansas until possibly 00z Friday. Did try to hint that some may 
spread into tul/xna/fyv late in the taf period. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 908 PM CST Wednesday Nov 19 2008/ 


Discussion... 
pre-frontal trough has pushed across roughly the northern third of 
County warning forecast area this evening but surface analyses continue to indicate strong 
frontal thermal gradient well to the north across northern Kansas at 02z. 
Post frontal 3 hour pressure rises in the Central Plains continue 
in the 3-5 mb range. Ongoing forecast handles ongoing and expected 
trends well. We did bump up wind/wind gust grids after 06z as 
expected pressure rises/gradient developing over our area later 
tonight should support 15g25mph. 


&& 


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Arkansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...22 
long term....07 
aviation...22