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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
845 PM MST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Synopsis...strong high pressure will dominate our weather through 
Thursday bringing generally clear skies...above normal temperatures 
and light winds. On Friday through the weekend a series of weak 
weather disturbances will bring cooler temperatures and partly 
cloudy skies but no chance of precipitation. However...next week 
these systems will strength bringing increased chances of 
precipitation by the middle to latter portion of next week. 


&& 


Discussion...skies are currently clear across northern 
Arizona...save for some high clouds moving eastward from the east 
Pacific. Look for more high clouds for this evening and tomorrow as 
well. Overall...it will be another warm and nice day across northern 
Arizona tomorrow. We made a few changes to the overnight 
lows...dropping them several degrees in spots...as current readings 
are much cooler than expected. We made a few changes to the 
temperatures grids for a few locations. Otherwise it all looks good. 


Previous discussion (253 PM mst)...high pressure aloft will remain 
centered over the western United States through Thursday...with the 
high pressure system gradually weakening as a series of weak weather 
disturbances will impact northern Arizona beginning on Friday. As a 
result...the above normal daytime temperatures...partly cloudy skies 
and light winds are not expected to last beyond Thursday. 


For Friday and the weekend...all models show the high pressure 
system over the west breaking down with a series of weather 
disturbances affecting northern Arizona. The likely forecast looks 
to be....daytime temperatures lowering to slightly above normal with 
partly cloudy skies and light winds with no chance of precipitation. 


For Monday and beyond...it appears that Arizona will increasingly 
come under the influence of stronger low pressure systems. At this 
time it is hard to determine the exact track and strength of these 
systems...however a further decrease in temperatures and a slight 
chance of precipitation are forecast starting Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation...for the 06z package...VFR conditions and light winds are 
forecast for the next 24 hours...with sct250 cirrus moving into northwestern 
Arizona after 12z Thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments. 


&& 


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public.........42 
aviation.......42 


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