828 
fxus65 kfgz 201656 
afdfgz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
955 am MST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Synopsis...dry and stable conditions will persist through the 
weekend. Expect mild daytime temperatures and light winds with 
occasional periods of high cirrus clouds moving across the 
Northland. Forecast models indicate a low pressure system could move 
into the southwest by the middle of next week with chances for 
precipitation starting next Tuesday. 


&& 


Discussion...expect continued dry conditions with light winds and 
mainly clear skies through Monday. Daytime high temperatures will be 
mild through the period with occasional high cirrus clouds moving 
through the Northland. 


Tuesday through Thursday...GFS and European models are in good 
agreement on a low pressure system moving into the region by the 
middle of next week. As the low center approaches Arizona from the 
west...a moist southwest flow pattern ahead of the system may 
develop producing chances for precipitation starting on Tuesday and 
potentially lasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday. Forecast 
confidence is fair this far out in the forecast package...with 
changes likely as the system gets closer...stay tuned. 


Current forecast grid package looks good with no changes needed. 


&& 


Aviation...for the 18z package...expect VFR conditions throughout 
the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments. 


&& 


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public.........Bohlin 
aviation.......Howard 


Visit weather.Gov/Flagstaff for northern Arizona weather information.