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fxus65 kvef 161625 aaa 
afdvef 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada 
925 am PDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Synopsis...high pressure will bring dry conditions and warm 
temperatures to the area through Wednesday. A weak storm will move 
into east central Nevada Thursday which will result in a chance of 
showers over eastern Nevada. Temperatures will fall back to near 
normal on Friday following the passage of this storm. 
&& 


Update...ridge axis will be over the area today...then shift east 
Wednesday as weak shortwave trough approaches the West Coast. 
Warmest temperatures of the Young year will occur over the next 
three days. 12z NAM/GFS both indicate the potential of convection 
developing Thursday from the southern Sierra east toward northern 
Lincoln County as a shortwave drops southeast over California and 
the Great Basin. Will make those changes in the afternoon package. 
No update this morning. 
&& 


Previous discussion...255 am PDT Tuesday Mar 16...high pressure to be over 
the County Warning Area today as an upper low off the Pacific northwest shifts onto 
the southern British Columbia coast this afternoon. This will 
flatten the ridge over the area into Wednesday before the ridge 
rapidly rebuilds along 130w on Thursday. With the ridge rebuilding 
further west...north flow to develop across the County Warning Area on 
Thursday...with a short wave dropping south across eastern 
Nevada/Utah. Models differ somewhat on the placement of this wave 
but overall there will be a chance of showers across mainly Lincoln 
County late Thursday/Thursday night. A concern however will be that 
if this system drops further west...will need to increase areal 
coverage of showers. At the same time...system will likely generate 
increased winds Thursday afternoon/evening...especially over the 
northern portion of the County Warning Area as a cold front pushes south. Expect 
frontal passage through the klas valley after 06z Friday. At this time 
expect winds to be in the breezy/windy category. With the ridge over 
the area today and basically Wednesday...look for temperatures to 
remain above normal. Little change for Thursday but increased clouds 
as the short wave moves into the area may drop readings a few 
degrees...before cooling into the first of the long term. 


Long term...an area of low pressure centered over far eastern 
Nevada/western Utah Friday morning will track southeast during the 
day. The models have trended further west with this system and it 
looks like a decent shot of precipitation for the far eastern areas 
of Lincoln County and far northern Mohave County...but the best 
chance will remain in Utah. Main impact will be the increasing 
surface pressure gradient and associated northerly winds Friday. 
Models are indicating a 100/110 knots jet core along the back side of 
the low over Nevada with 500 mb winds of 80/90kts and 700 mb winds of 
40/50kts. This could translate to some rather windy conditions... 
especially across Lincoln...Clark...and Mohave counties Friday 
afternoon. Along with a strong surface pressure gradient...thermal 
packing is rather strong with a 12z Friday 700 mb temperature difference 
of -14 degree c from Ely to eed. This will also lead to around a 10-15 
degree drop in temperatures from Thursday to Friday. Cool temperatures 
will hang around Saturday as northerly flow persists. However high 
pressure will rebuild over the area Sunday and early next week with 
much warmer temperatures along with dry conditions. 
&& 


Aviation...for McCarran...mostly clear skies with light wind today 
and tonight. 


For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast 
California...light wind today with the exception being the Colorado 
River between Bullhead City and Lake Havasu City this morning 
through early afternoon. North winds between 8-12kts with a few 
gusts up to 20kts at times. Skies will remain mostly clear. 
&& 


Vef watches/warnings/advisories... 
Nevada...none. 
Arizona...none. 
California...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Pierce/Jensen/gorelow 


Http://weather.Gov/lasvegas