493 
fxus65 kpub 181204 
afdpub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 
604 am MDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


Update... 


Given trends in the 06z simulations have upgraded many of the 
watches to warnings. Models are showing better 700 mb upslope flow 
across most of the region. This is due in part to the 700 mb 
center organizing over the Central Mountain region. As the 
good upslope is over the region...the strongest qg ascent is still 
to our west so good forcing both dynamically and upslope will be 
over the region. 


One area of concern is the upper Arkansas River valley from Canon 
City all the way to Leadville. Quite a few simulation runs are 
showing heavy snow even over the lower elevation areas of the 
valley. Given the 700 mb setup and the time of year...this heavy 
snow is not out of the question. Likewise...have included these 
regions in the warning. 


Another concern will be the San Luis valley...especially the 
northern part of the valley and western part of the valley. These 
areas may need hilites later today. 


Additionally...due to the due east 700 mb winds...lower elevation 
of El Paso County and all of Pueblo County may also see some 
heavy snow. At this time will let the day shift know of this concern and 
let them hoist any hilites if needed. 


One more concern is the far east plains as it is possible some heavy 
snow could occur across Las Animas and Baca County late Friday 
night into Saturday...especially if the system gets spun up a bit 
quicker than guidance is currently alluding to. \/Hodanish 


&& 


Pub watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Storm Warning from 3 am Friday to 6 am MDT Saturday for 
coz058>061-063-081-082-084. 


Winter Storm Warning from 6 am Friday to 6 am MDT Saturday for 
coz062-072>080-083. 


Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night 
for coz087-088. 


Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Friday night 
for coz065>068. 


&& 


$$ 


Hodanish