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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado 
237 PM MST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Short term...tonight through Friday... 


A ridge of high pressure will dominate the big picture through the 
short term period for generally dry conditions. However there are a 
few details Worth mentioning. A dry cold front will push southward 
on the east side of the mountains late tonight into Thursday. While 
most cooling will remain east of the Continental Divide some cooling 
will be seen in thursdays highs...especially along our eastern 
border and over the far north. Also some high clouds will stream 
over the area from the northwest late tonight and tomorrow. 


A shortwave trough will move into the Pacific northwest on 
Thursday...then across the northern rockies early Friday. This 
disturbance will remain to our north...however the gradient will 
tighten and a quick shot of moisture will affect the northern edge on 
Friday. So expect a few showers may develop over the Park Range on 
Friday in the favorable orographics. Temperatures will again be a couple 
degrees cooler...especially north...but still well above normal 
values. 


Long term...Friday night through Wednesday... 


Dry weather this weekend as a longwave ridge persists over the 
west through early next week. Another weak shortwave drops across 
the forecast area late Sunday for an increase in cloudiness...but 
does not look promising for any precipitation with models showing a dearth 
of moisture and dynamics. 


A Pacific trough is expected to move inland Tuesday night and Wednesday. The 
ecwmf is more amplified and slower than the GFS. A lot of spread 
between the individual GFS ensemble members as well...so confidence 
is not that great on the timing of next week/S system. Will lean 
toward the GFS ensemble mean as a result. Expect to see an increase 
in high level clouds Tuesday afternoon/night ahead of the Pacific trough as flow 
becomes more W-SW. Will introduce a slight chance of precipitation on Wednesday 
for mainly the mountains. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions continue tonight through Thursday night. Some light to 
moderate turbulence will develop later Thursday as increasing stable 
southwest winds aloft create some mountain wave affects. 


&& 


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories... 
Colorado...none. 
Utah...none. 


$$ 


Short term.....Eh 
long term......jad 
aviation.......joe+eh