988 
fxus62 ktae 200731 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
230 am EST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Short term (tonight through friday)...shortwave energy currently 
over the northern plains will drop to the southeast and carve out 
another deep trough along the eastern U.S. Tonight through Friday. As 
the axis of this trough moves east...another shortwave will translate 
from the northern plains Friday night to the Ohio Valley on Saturday 
which will keep an upper trough over the southeast. In the meantime 
..the upper pattern backs today resulting in deep northwest to west 
flow which will allow a brief warming trend before the next surge of 
colder and drier air arrives on Friday. After a cool start this 
morning...afternoon temperatures should be on the order of 10 to 15 
degrees warmer than yesterday's readings. Then the dry Arctic cold 
front is forecast to push through around or just after daybreak 
Friday. Afternoon temperatures will once again be well below normal 
with middle to upper 50s expected most areas. Saturday morning as the 
surface high settles in and centers just to our north we should see 
temperatures dropping into the middle to upper 20s with lower to middle 
30s along the immediate coast. Plenty of sunshine on Saturday but 
afternoon temperatures will still be on the cool side with maximum temperatures 
generally around 60 degrees. 


&& 


Long term (saturday night through thursday)...still no end in sight 
to the current large scale western ridge/eastern trough 
configuration. Saturday night will be cool once again with cold high 
pressure to the north of the area. Temperatures expected to dip to or just 
below the freezing mark by Sunday morning. A brief warm up Sunday 
and Monday will be followed by another cold frontal passage Monday 
night into Tuesday. Guidance slowly backing off on precipitation chances 
with this front...but will keep 20 percent in for now. Cool high 
pressure will build in once again behind this front. 


&& 


Marine...high pressure will remain centered near the marine area 
today providing light winds and low seas. Winds and seas will 
increase once again behind another dry cold frontal passage 
overnight tonight and remain elevated through Saturday. Advisory 
conditions are likely Friday and Friday night diminishing to 
cautionary levels on Saturday. Light winds and low seas are expected 
Sunday into the first part of next week with winds gradually 
shifting to the east and then southeast. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions with clear skies and light west-northwest 
winds will continue through the forecast period. 


&& 


Fire weather...relative humidity durations will be marginal across the eastern Big 
Bend this afternoon. Current grids give 3 to 4 hours at or below 35 
percent. Past few days have been slightly more moist than forecast 
..so will hold off on issuing any warning for today. Much drier air 
will move in Friday behind the cold front with durations expected to 
be met for all fire weather zones. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch this 
morning for Friday afternoon. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Tallahassee 68 37 58 27 60/ 0 0 0 0 0 
Panama City 67 44 60 34 62/ 0 0 0 0 0 
Dothan 66 37 54 27 59/ 0 0 0 0 0 
Albany 65 35 55 24 58/ 0 0 0 0 0 
Valdosta 64 36 56 24 59/ 0 0 0 0 0 
Cross City 68 39 61 26 64/ 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Barry