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fxus64 kmob 201041 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
441 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Short term [today and tonight]...surface high pressure over the 
northern Gulf of Mexico will be replaced by another as a strong cold 
front moves across the forecast area this evening and night. The 
mostly zonal to northwest upper flow and the rapid progression of 
surface systems across the area continues to keep Gulf moisture out 
of the picture and this front will come through dry. 
Light...generally westerly winds this morning will remain west to 
northwest through the day with temperatures around 70 for highs most 
places. Increasing northerly winds tonight...mainly after midnight 
as the front passes. /11 


Short term [friday through saturday]...cold high will move south 
tonight behind a cold front passing this evening. Lows Friday 
night...with lows in the lower 20s inland areas...with upper 20s to 
low 30s along the coast. Cool and dry Saturday. /77 


Long term [saturday night through thursday]...surface high will 
move off the East Coast by Sunday...with return to seasonal temperatures 
through Tuesday. Gulf opens up at that time increasing chances of 
rain Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as a front 
approaches. GFS is downplaying surface cyclogenesis over the Gulf 
and instead developing the approaching a cold front as part of a low 
south of the Great Lakes. This is more congruent with the European model (ecmwf) 
which has not heralded Gulf cyclogenesis. Another high pressure will 
move in behind the front followed by more dry weather. /77 


&& 


Marine...winds mostly westerly and light today will become northwest 
this evening and northerly later tonight as front passes. Will 
likely need small craft advisories either late tonight or early 
Friday morning. This system will move fairly quickly so expect 
the winds to become easterly by the weekend but remain around 15 to 
20 knots as the high center passes north of the marine area on its 
way east. Seas will build with the increasing wind late tonight and 
Friday but with the shorter fetch...wave heights generally 7 feet or 
less well offshore. The easterly winds over the weekend will be 
moderate to strong at times and with the longer fetch but slightly 
reduced wind speed we should continue to have offshore wave heights 
5 to 6 feet through most of the weekend. /11 


&& 


Aviation...for 20/12z...a few patches of ground fog around the area 
this morning but am not expecting any sustained period of IFR 
conditions. Otherwise expect visual flight rules for the next 24 
hours...winds will increase from the north later tonight as the next 
cold front arrives./11 


&& 


Fire weather...cold front to pass tonight will shift the winds from 
west to north. High will move south behind it bringing Dr air with 
it. Risk of humidity below 25 percent for 4 hours warrants a watch 
for Alabama and Florida counties Friday. /77 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 72 40 56 29 / 00 05 00 05 
Pensacola 68 42 59 32 / 00 05 05 05 
Destin 68 43 59 44 / 00 05 05 05 
Evergreen 67 34 53 22 / 00 05 00 05 
Waynesboro 67 34 52 22 / 00 05 00 05 
Camden 65 34 51 23 / 00 05 00 05 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...Fire Weather Watch from noon Friday to 6 PM Friday for the 
following zones: Butler...Choctaw...Clarke...Conecuh... 
Covington...Crenshaw...Escambia...Monroe...Washington...and 
Wilcox. 


Freeze watch from midnight Saturday to 8 am Saturday for the 
following zones: Butler...Choctaw...Clarke...Conecuh... 
Covington...Crenshaw...Escambia...Monroe...Washington...and 
Wilcox. 


Florida...Fire Weather Watch from noon Friday to 6 PM Friday for the 
following zones: coastal Escambia...coastal Okaloosa... 
coastal Santa Rosa...inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa... 
and inland Santa Rosa. 


MS...freeze watch from midnight Saturday to 8 am Saturday for the 
following zones: Greene...Perry...and Wayne. 


GM...none. 
&& 


$$