125 
fxus62 kmfl 200852 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
352 am EST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


.Dry weather continues for South Florida into the first part of 
the weekend... 


Discussion... 
high pressure was located over the northeast Gulf of Mexico early 
this morning. The high will slowly weaken today into Friday while 
moving south into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will keep the 
County Warning Area in a northwest to North Florida today into Friday along with 
dry weather. A cold front over the Tennessee Valley will also move 
southeast...and pass through South Florida Friday night. This 
will reinforce the dry weather over the County Warning Area for Saturday. 


A strengthen high pressure will also build over the southeast United 
States this weekend behind the cold front. This will allow for 
pressure gradient to tighten over the County Warning Area this weekend, and allow 
for breezy to windy northeast winds over the East Coast metropolitan 
areas this weekend. There could even be a few showers over the 
Atlantic waters working into the East Coast metropolitan areas on 
Sunday...as the northeast winds deepen to 700 mb. So will keep the 
slight chance of showers going for the East Coast metropolitan areas on 
Sunday...while rest of the County Warning Area will remain dry. 




Extended forecast... 
the surface high will break down on Monday...allowing for a second 
cold front to move south and through South Florida Tuesday 
night. So will continue a slight chance of showers for the County Warning Area 
early next week...before going cooler and drier again for the 
middle part of next week. 


&& 


Marine... 
the winds early this morning have been from the northerly 
direction at 10 to 15 knots. The northerly direction should 
continue today into Friday...before swinging to a northeast 
direction this weekend. The speeds will remain below 15 knots 
today into Friday...before increasing to 20 knots or greater 
Friday night into the weekend. 


Therefore...the Gulf Stream seas to should continue to decrease 
early this morning and be below 7 feet by late this morning. The 
Atlantic seas will then remain below 7 feet through Friday...before 
increasing to 6 to 8 feet near-shore and up to 11 feet in the Gulf 
Stream by Saturday afternoon. The Gulf seas will also remain below 
6 feet today into Friday...before the offshore Gulf waters 
increase to 6 feet by Saturday. 


So will continue the Small Craft Advisory for the Gulf Stream seas this morning. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
the latest nam12 and WRF models are showing that the drier air 
over central Florida will work down into South Florida 
today. This should allow the dew points over the County Warning Area to fall into 
the middle to upper 30s over the northern areas to the middle to upper 
40s over the far southern areas this afternoon. The temperatures should 
also be able to warm up into the lower to middle 70s over the County Warning Area 
this afternoon. This will allow for the relative humidities over 
most of the County Warning Area to fall below 35 percent 4 hours or more this 
afternoon. 


The only areas that will not see the 4 hour duration of below 35 
percent relative humidities will be over the western Collier County and 
the southern Miami-Dade County...due to the winds being northwest 
over western Collier County and northeast over southern Miami-Dade 
County. These winds will allow for some moisture to work into the 
area from the waters which in turn will keep the dew points up a 
little bit higher than over rest of the County Warning Area. 


So will issue a red flag warning for all of the County Warning Area late this 
morning into this afternoon...except for western Collier County and 
southern Miami-Dade County. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 72 49 74 57 / - - - - 
Fort Lauderdale 74 54 76 59 / - - - - 
Miami 74 54 76 59 / - - - - 
Naples 71 52 74 53 / - - - - 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 7 PM EST this 
evening for flz063-flz066-flz067-flz068-flz070-flz071- 
flz072-flz073-flz074-flz075-flz168-flz172-flz173. 


Am...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for amz650- 
amz651-amz670-amz671. 


GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Long term...54/bnb 
short term/aviation...18/gr