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fxus62 ktbw 201616 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
1116 am EST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Fire weather...relative humidity trends combined with forecast northerly winds 
this afternoon will mean a good shot at Charlotte and Lee counties 
making red flag conditions. Have expanded the warning to include 
these counties. Manatee and Sarasota counties will be close...but 
winds should be more northwesterly...allowing a slightly more 
moist airmass to shift in off the Gulf. 


Also decided to extend the warning till 6 PM...as some sites could 
still be down between 5 and 6. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 952 am EST Thursday Nov 20 2008/ 


Discussion...after a very chilly start to the morning with some new 
record lows being observed (see pnstbw for complete details on the 
record low temperatures for this morning) temperatures have rebounded 
back into the upper 40s across northern zones and ~50 to the lower 
50s central and south under sunny skies. The freeze warning for the 
Nature Coast was allow to expire at 8 am EST. 


Weak surface high pressure across the region with a very dry and stable 
airmass will again support another cool day across the forecast area 
with temperatures running some 10 degrees below normal despite ample 
sunshine. Will update the forecast shortly to remove the freeze warning 
headlines and frost wording...otherwise no other changes planned at 
this time. 


Aviation...VFR conditions are expected at all terminal sites 
through Friday. 


Marine...weak high pressure over the region will support a light northwest 
to northerly wind flow and slight seas over the coastal waters the remainder 
of today. Current forecast looks in good shape with no changes expected 
in the next forecast issuance later this morning. 


Fire weather...very dry air combined with a west to northwest wind 
flow and slightly higher temperatures compared to yesterday will support 
red flag conditions over interior locations during the afternoon where 
current red flag warnings are in effect. Across coastal counties developing 
onshore flow should keep relative humidity values just above critical levels...but 
will still need to monitor...an if needed will expand current red flag 
to other counties if conditions warrant. 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...red flag warning until 6 PM EST this afternoon for Charlotte-Delaware 
Soto-Hardee-Highlands-Lee-Polk-Sumter. 


Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for Levy. 


Gulf waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update....57/McMichael 
aviation/fire weather...55/sharp