840 
fxus62 kmlb 201433 
afdmlb 


East central Florida forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
932 am EST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Discussion... 


..fire sensitive day across east central Florida today... 


Today...very cool start to the morning in central Florida. Both 
Melbourne international and Orlando international airports tied 
record lows this morning: 


Kmlb: 40/1968 
kmco: 39/1968 


Temperatures are expected to recover into the upper 60s to lower 70s 
this afternoon. A high pressure ridge axis over central Florida this 
morning will continue to slide southward into the southern peninsula 
through the afternoon. Skies will be sunny and conditions will 
remain dry. Light morning winds will become west/northwest and 
increase to between 5 and 10 miles per hour. 


Tonight...another reinforcing cool front will to slide southward 
over the southeast & Gulf Coast states ending up over north-central 
Florida by early Friday morning. Skies will continue to be mostly clear 
with light west/northwest flow. Lows will be a bit warmer than 
recent nights...in the 40s. 


&& 


Aviation...skc/VFR. West-northwest wind 5-10 knots. 


&& 


Marine...today/tonight...high pressure ridging will slide southward 
across the coastal waters during the day. The west/northwest winds 
should continue to relax late this morning into this afternoon 
falling from around 15 kts offshore to around 10-12 kts. This evening 
the gradient will increase slightly in response to high pressure to 
the south and an approaching cold front to the north with speeds 
12-15 kts. Seas will gradually subside through the day so anticipate 
on allowing Small Craft Advisory for seas offshore two southern legs to die out. Will 
likely carry cautionary statements for 4-6 feet seas offshore. Not 
exactly beach weather...but an elevated rip current risk will exist 
at area beaches today due to an increasing northeast long period 
swell. 


&& 


Fire weather...(previous discussion)...12km NAM continues to 
advertise much lower dewpoints than the GFS MOS would suggest with some 
very dry air in the h9-800 mb layer. With northwest-west winds today at 5-10 knots 
and warmer temperatures than yesterday should see long duration of low relative humidity for 
the interior and inland sections of the coastal counties down to 
Indian River and St. Lucie...and inland sections of Martin County. 
Friday...near critical relative humidity possible behind the front but will hold 
off on any issuances due to questionable time duration criteria 
being met. 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 5 PM EST this 
afternoon for coastal Volusia-Indian River-inland Volusia- 
northern Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola- 
Seminole-southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie-inland 
Martin. 


Am...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Sedlock/glitto