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Area forecast discussion for the Florida Keys 
National Weather Service Key West Florida 
1019 am EST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Discussion... 
currently... 
mostly sunny skies prevail this November morning along the Florida 
Keys. Radar detects a few light showers or sprinkles within a 
convergence line extending from east of Miami south southwestward 
across the Florida Straits...with no precipitation noted across the 
remainder of the region. Temperatures along the island chain are 
rising through the 60s...and are running 3 to 5 degrees warmer than 
they were 24 hours ago. Winds are from the north to northeast at 10 
to 15 knots on land and in Florida Bay...with winds running near 15 
knots at the C-man sites along the reef. 


Surface analysis depicts a 1024 mb high stretching from the central 
Gulf Coast region across the northeastern Gulf and into central 
Florida. At middle and upper levels...broad troughing continues to 
dominate the eastern United States. The 12z Key West sounding was 
quite dry (pwat 0.6 inches) with an inversion based near 850 mb... 
and very dry air above. 


Short term (rest of today)... 
expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions to prevail across the 
Keys this afternoon. Radar and satellite trends suggest that the 
convergence line over The Straits should remain safely southeast of 
the island chain. 24 hour temperature trends and the low level 
warming depicted in the morning sounding both suggest that we should 
see highs several degrees warmer than yesterday...with the previous 
forecast of maximum temperatures in the lower 70s appearing to be on track. 
Since the existing public forecast continues to accurately describe 
the expected conditions for this afternoon...no update is planned. 


Marine... 
Quikscat data is not available this morning...but based on a couple 
of ship reports and C-man data...along with the weakening low level 
winds reported from the morning Key West sounding (only near 10 knots 
at 1k/2k feet)...feel that winds are subsiding as predicted. We did 
have one ship report with 3 to 4 foot seas well south of Sand Key 
light...which along with wavewatch data suggests that seas have 
subsided sufficiently to drop the exercise caution headline from The 
Straits. Still looking for a period of gentle to moderate north to 
northeast flow this afternoon through Friday morning...before winds 
begin to increase once again Friday afternoon. Another cold front 
will pass through the Keys Friday night...with fresh to strong 
breezes persisting through the weekend. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail at the Keys island terminals for today. 
Surface winds will be from the north northeast at around 10 knots 
through this afternoon then back to more north this evening and 
remain under 10 knots. There will be the presence of cross 
winds...however...effects should be minimal. 


&& 


Key watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Public/marine.........Jacobson 
aviation/nowcasts.....Bwc 
data collection.......fuentes 


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