068 
fxus62 kmlb 200840 
afdmlb 


East central Florida forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
340 am EST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Discussion... 


Currently...coldest temperatures at 2am Okahumpka/Pierson/Kenansville Fawn 
sites at 34/35/35 degrees with calm winds and clear skies. Good setup 
for some frost formation this morning mainly across inland 
Volusia...lake...and outlying areas of Orange...Seminole...and 
Osceola counties. Temperatures in the Lower/Middle 40s further south across 
Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Winds have dropped off to 
around 10 knots at buoy 41009 with seas around 5 feet. 


Today...high pressure center across the northern Gulf toward west central Florida 
will slip slowly south today. Light northwest flow this morning will become 
more westerly this afternoon. Another sunny...dry and cool day with 
high in the middle-upper 60s north to lower 70s far southern sections. 


Tonight...another front will begin to push off the middle Atlantic coast 
late and tighten the pressure gradient toward morning between the surface 
front to our NE and strong high pressure center across the Southern 
Plains. Another mainly clear night...with light west flow in the 
evening increasing and becoming northwest toward sunrise. Lows will be a 
bit warmer than recent nights...in the 40s. 


Fri-sun...next in series of dry cool surges will move across the 
area on Friday. Temperatures will not significantly lower however due to 
the brief episode of cool advection before onshore winds begin to 
develop Friday night. Large high pressure north of the state will 
retreat off the middle Atlantic coast during the weekend providing milder 
temperatures each day with a steady increase in ll moisture in 
onshore flow. Rain chances will remain isolated at best over the marine 
area and coast due to limited moisture. 


Mon-Thu...Monday a weak ridge north of the state will provide light 
onshore flow with a slight chance of coastal and marine precipitation and 
seasonal temperatures. Next wave feature approaching in middle latitudes will close 
in on the southeast Tuesday with surface frontal passage across area during day. Will 
keep 20 percent precipitation chance in forecast Tuesday. Post frontal drying through 
midweek with high pressure working toward area. Expect slow warming 
trend beginning Thursday with development of onshore flow expected 
through week's end. 


&& 


Aviation... 
skc/VFR. Wind 5-10 knots. 


&& 


Marine...with high pressure center building toward the West Coast this 
morning pressure gradient beginning to relax with west-northwest winds around 
10 knots at buoy 41009. Northwest winds to 10-15 knots offshore today and 
increasing to 15 kts offshore late tonight. Seas will continue 
elevated across central/southern offshore waters early today...espec in 
the Gulf Stream so will continue advisory for seas there through 10 
am. Otherwise...expect seas to drop to 4-6 feet offshore later this 
afternoon and tonight. Winds and seas to increase once again behind 
the next front on Friday and continuing into next week. Headlines 
for Small Craft Advisory will be needed offshore by Friday afternoon. Choppy seas 
near shore into Sunday will also be hazardous for small vessels. 




&& 


Fire weather...12km NAM continues to advertise much lower dewpoints 
than the GFS MOS would suggest with some very dry air in the h9-800 mb 
layer. With northwest-west winds today at 5-10 knots and warmer temperatures than yesterday 
should see long duration of low relative humidity for the interior and inland 
sections of the coastal counties down to Indian River and St. 
Lucie...and inland sections of Martin County. Friday...near critical 
relative humidity possible behind the front but will hold off on any issuances due 
to questionable time duration criteria being met. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
dab 67 44 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 
mco 68 47 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 
mlb 68 47 69 50 / 0 0 0 0 
vrb 69 46 70 52 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 5 PM EST this 
afternoon for coastal Volusia-Indian River-inland Volusia- 
northern Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola- 
Seminole-southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie-inland 
Martin. 


Am...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 am EST this 
morning for waters from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20 
to 60 nm offshore-waters from Volusia Brevard County line 
to Sebastian Inlet 20 to 60 nm offshore. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term/aviation...volkmer 
long term....pendergrast