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fxus65 kpih 062000 
afdpih 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho 
200 PM MDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Short term...zonal flow today has assisted in creating breezy 
conditions across the area and expect this influence to diminish 
after sunset. With clearing skies...overnight temperatures to drop 
some 4 to 8 degrees when compared with this morning. On 
Tuesday...slight warm air advection in advance of low pressure 
along Washington coast to bump temperatures a few degrees. There 
is a potential for moderate to strong winds to develop... 
especially in the Snake River Plain. Current derived values place 
wind speeds at or just below advisory criteria. Will allow one 
more model run and position of upper jet in next 12 hours to help 
better establish possible advisory. Front that swings through 
Tuesday night into Wednesday is mainly dry at this time with 
slight potential in central mountains towards the Idaho Montana 
border. Vlp 




Long term...models show potential for deepening storm over the area 
over the weekend. Problem is that GFS places low further east with 
our area just getting a glancing blow Saturday. European model (ecmwf) on the 
other hand has a closed low developing just to the south of US 
with a potential for mountain snows Sunday into Monday. This 
afternoons long range discussions are now in favor European model (ecmwf) 
trends. Although another couple of runs may be needed to verify. 
For now the forecasts highlight the cooler temperatures and slight 
chances for mountain snows. We will be paying close attention to 
this developing storm potential as many outdoor activities begin 
this time of year over the mountains. Vlp 




&& 


Aviation...a few cumulus in the somewhat unstable lower atmosphere 
for this afternoon...should dissipate with sunset at around 07/02z. 
Expect diurnal wind shifts this evening...but for Tuesday afternoon 
expect moderate to strong wind to develop in advance of a dry cold 
front. Fortunately...should be right down the runways at most 
airdromes. Not expecting any low ceilings or visibilities with this 
front...and very little in the way of precipitation. Messick 


&& 


Fire weather...clouds will continue their clearing trend even 
though a front is approaching for Tuesday afternoon. With the jet 
stream sagging southward and overhead of central and eastern 
Idaho...wind will get strong if the atmosphere can be made 
unstable. That is just what will happen with a front Tuesday 
afternoon. Expect strong wind but very little precipitation as this 
front is very dry. Best chances for precipitation are Salmon-Challis and 
targhee portion of Caribou-targhee nf. Main event will be wind for 
Tuesday afternoon and evening. After this...strong airflow aloft from 
the west will continue...occasionally surfacing with any shortwave 
energy moving through the mean flow. A strong low is expected 
towards the end of the week over the western states...but the 
position is still greatly in doubt. However...there will probably 
be some snow at high elevations sometime from Thursday night through Sat 
night. Messick 


&& 


Pih watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$