404 
fxus65 kpih 220228 
afdpih 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho 
830 PM MDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion...latest satellite imagery showing clearing skies across 
the area and will go ahead and remove any threat of evening 
convection from the forecast. Winds are also dropping off below 
advisory criteria...thus will allow the lake wind and Wind Advisory 
products to expire with the evening package update. Remainder 
of package looks to be in good shape...see previous discussion 
below. Huston 


A cold front is expected to move through the area this afternoon. 
The better moisture/dynamics remain over northern sections of the 
forecast area into Montana. This is where a slight chance for 
thunderstorms remains for the evening. Gusty conditions have been 
present near the front...winds have been just under the criteria 
for a Wind Advisory in the snake plain. Will continue to monitor 
to see if a Wind Advisory may yet be needed. A lake Wind Advisory 
remains in effect...with dangerous chop expected on the American 
Falls Reservoir. 


Cooler weather is expected for Friday as high pressure settles 
over the area. This cool spell will be short lived as the upper 
ridge is expected to quickly build back in for the weekend. Models 
are showing some moisture moving back with the ridge and an 
isolated thunderstorm over the weekend remains 
possible...especially over the southern Highlands. 


GFS has a very different solution for next week than previous 
runs. Now bringing a front in Monday afternoon with very little 
precipitation for Tuesday or Wednesday. Given the run to run 
inconsistency here...have made very little changes to the extended 
forecast. Valle 
&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions are expected through Friday. A cold 
front moving through the area today will produce gusty winds 
especially in the central mountains and Snake River Plain through 
this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also possible 
across the central mountains today while drier conditions return on 
Friday. Hanko 
&& 


Fire weather...a Pacific system crossing the region today will 
bring a slight chance of precipitation mainly in the higher terrain 
in the northern half of the district. Most of the region will remain 
dry. An associated cold front will continue to push wind gusts over 
35 miles per hour through this evening...particularly at ridge tops in the 
central mountains and in the upper Snake River Valley. Humidities will be 
above critical thresholds so no headlines are expected. 
However...burn areas will need to be monitored closely through the 
this evening. After this evening...ridge conditions will return to 
eastern Idaho with drying/warming and a significant decrease in 
winds for the weekend. Hanko 
&& 


Pih watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$