629 
fxus65 kpih 070845 
afdpih 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho 
245 am MDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Short term...today through Wednesday. 
Strong zonal flow aloft today with the passage of a cold front 
will allow for breezy conditions. The brunt of the precipitation 
with the system will stay to the north but have isolated 
precipitation in central mountains and upper snake Highlands. Dry 
zonal flow continues Wednesday and expect breezy conditions once 
again. Expect above normal temperatures today and slightly cooler 
conditions Wednesday behind the cold front. 
Gk 


Long term...Thursday through Tuesday. 
Long term models...ec and GFS have come into pretty good agreement 
on the late week and weekend system. Deep Pacific trough comes on 
shore Thursday and NAM...ec and GFS close 500 millibar low over 
Idaho...Nevada region by Friday and push north through eastern 
Idaho on Saturday. This trough has very cold air associated with it 
and if the current forecast track holds will likely see the first 
accumulating snows in southeast Idaho this season with snow levels 
reaching valley floors. Increased the precipitation chances Friday 
through Saturday night. At this point it appears the southern and 
eastern Highlands are most likely to see heavy snowfall at this 
time. System moves east Sunday and Monday and Tuesday look dry. 
Valleys will likely see several mornings of sub freezing 
temperatures beginning Thursday. Expect high temperatures only in 
the 30s mountains and 30s and 40s valleys Friday and Saturday. 
Gk 


&& 


Aviation...strong southwest winds will accompany a cold front which 
is expected to pass through eastern Idaho this afternoon. Winds will pick up 
by middle afternoon and continue into the evening hours. Precipitation with the 
cold front is expected to remain north of the taf sites...so VFR 
conditions will continue through tonight. Hedges 


&& 


Fire weather...a strong cold front will pass through the central 
Idaho mountains early this afternoon...and through eastern Idaho by 
early evening. Strong west to southwest winds are expected with and 
behind the cold front...beginning this afternoon and continuing into 
the evening. Light showers can be expected across the central Idaho 
mountains this afternoon and evening. A major storm system is due at 
the end of the week. This will bring much colder temperatures 
through the weekend...along with potentially significant snowfall in 
the mountains. Hedges 


&& 


Pih watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$