393 
fxus65 kpih 120303 
afdpih 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho 
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Short term...upper low continues to lift slowly NE through northern Utah 
placing southern Idaho in prime sector for heavy snow. Radar continues to 
show the strongest and most prolific returns extending from American 
Falls east to Burley where there have been 12-15 inch storm total 
snowfall reports. From Pocatello north through the Upper Valley 
accumulations have been rather light (less than 2 inches generally). 
As the upper low lifts NE into the Wyoming border late tonight...the 
heaviest associated precipitation should spread into the Wyoming 
border area and Upper Valley. Thus warnings continue all around. 
See previous discussion below. Huston 


Strong upper low in western Utah slide northeast overnight placing 
southeast Idaho in excellent position to pick up heavy snowfall as 
forecast. Will keep current warnings in place through tomorrow at 
least noon-time. There is a possibility of convection embedded with 
snow area overnight...so would not rule out an isolated lightning 
Bolt...although did not place in forecast. Most preferred area for 
this is along Idaho / Wyoming border...and if it occurs...a brief 
2-3 inch per hour snowfall possible. Otherwise...snowfall to 
continue as low wraps moisture around itself as it pulls northeast. 
Moisture from Hurricane Norbert will only graze the area as most 
will pushed off to east. Strong winds expected to keep in place 
until midnight...so have kept blowing and drifting mentioned in 
warnings. Vp 


Long...term...once the upper low pushes east Monday...progressive 
drier pattern sets up for middle week. Flow flattens with weak energy 
riding east through Panhandle and just north of Divide. Left weak 
probability of precipitation along northern tier zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. Upper 
ridge builds into region late in the week ahead of next Pacific 
low. Eastern Idaho looks dry and mild for Thursday/Friday. Could 
see next system arrive by next weekend for another shot at rain for 
eastern Idaho. Dmh 
&& 


Aviation...widespread snow tonight for most of the forecast area 
with MVFR/IFR conditions predominating. Periods of LIFR in the 
Snake River Plain and eastern/southern Highlands in heavier snow 
showers. Dsh 
&& 


Fire weather...a major winter storm will produce widespread snow 
for the remainder of the weekend. Several inches of snow are 
possible in both mountain and valley locations. The winter storm 
will move to the east Sunday night with snow ending over most areas. 
Dsh 
&& 


Pih watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT Sunday for idz017-020-021. 


Winter Storm Warning until 12 PM MDT Sunday for idz018-019- 
022>025-032. 


&& 


$$