930 
fxus65 kboi 062044 
afdboi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
242 PM MDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Short term...tonight through Wednesday...next Pacific system will 
track northeast into southwestern Canada and will carry the bulk of 
dynamics and precipitation well north of the area. A cold front extending 
southwest from the parent low will move through southeast Oregon 
Tuesday morning and across southwest Idaho Tuesday afternoon. 
Initially...there will be enough moisture with the front to warrant 
a low threat of showers across the northern mountains...but once it 
reaches points to the south it becomes moisture starved. Main 
affects with the front will be gusty afternoon winds...especially at 
higher elevations where wind gusts to 40 miles per hour are possible...and 
cooler temperatures on Wednesday. Ahead of the front...temperatures 
will reach the 70s in the lower valleys Tuesday afternoon. 


Long term...Wednesday night through Monday...potent upper level 
trough will dig south along the British Columbia coast late Wednesday/early 
Thursday. Trough will continue to strengthen on Thursday...setting 
up over the intermountain west by Friday. Models have struggled 
considerably in the representation of this system and still lack 
consensus with respect to strength and location. European model (ecmwf) remains more 
aggressive than operational GFS and closes off upper wave over 
northern Nevada/southern Idaho early Friday. Despite model discrepancies - 
confidence slowly increases in unseasonably cool weather. Forecast 
temperatures 10 to 13 degrees below middle-October normals Thu/Fri/Sat. 
Have also increased areal coverage of precipitation Fri/Sat. Snow 
levels forecast to drop as low as 3600 feet Friday night/Saturday 
morning with cold core over the forecast area. Conditions will trend 
warmer and drier by Monday as closed low exits the area. 


&& 


Aviation...a cold front will approach the forecast area late 
tonight...for isolated rain showers and brief MVFR ceilings over 
higher terrain. Expect isolated IFR in fog throughout mountain 
valleys by 12z as well. Light to moderate surfaces winds. Moderate 
westerly winds aloft. 


&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Or...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Short term...bw 
long term....Mt/dd 
aviation.....Mt