174 
fxus63 kddc 200938 
afdddc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
338 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Discussion... 


Days 1-2... 


The main item of interest for the period through Friday night will 
be temperatures...both highs and lows...and winds Friday. 


A strong cold front pushed through yesterday evening ushering in 
much cooler Canadian air across western Kansas. Low stratus 
developed in the wake of the front across far western Kansas in 
the area along and generally west of the surface ridge axis where 
winds had more of a northeasterly component. Low stratus should 
remain across mainly the far western counties through this 
morning. A band of higher level stratus will move south across 
western Kansas through the day today...mainly in the 6-9 thousand 
foot layer. With the surface high still centered across the 
Dakotas today...surface winds will remain moderately strong out of 
the north-northeast creating a noticeable bite to the air. Highs 
will struggle to escape the upper 30s across western and northern 
ddc forecast area counties. 


By tonight...clouds should part across mainly the central and 
eastern counties and 1040 mb surface high ridge will become 
centered across central and southwest Kansas. This will allow some 
of the coldest overnight lows of the Young cold season to 
develop...with lower 20s common. Friday...another upper air 
disturbance will move southeast across the northern rockies in the 
prevailing northwest flow aloft. This will allow renewed surface 
Lee trough development and enhanced pressure gradient between the 
departing Canadian surface high and the newly developed Lee 
trough. Surface winds Friday may approach Wind Advisory criteria 
given the expected rather strong pressure gradient. The grids 
will reflect 23-26 knots surface winds. Temperatures will be a 
challenge Friday as much of the air will be recirculated around 
the departing Canadian high. Have lowered high temperatures for most 
areas into the lower to middle 40s given expected cooler low level temperatures. 


Days 3-7... 


Basically, not many changes were made to existing extended grids. A 
little smoothing and isc grid tweaking was done. 


The European model (ecmwf) and GFS models are remarkably close at the 00z runs, 
starting western Kansas with west-northwest flow aloft and the 
beginning of a short wave in the flow north of Montana in southern 
Canada. Both models keep that northern short wave well north of our 
cwa, closing off the low and tracking it into the Great Lakes area 
by Tuesday. Then, a large upper wave forms in the Pacific and 
approaches Southern California by 12z Thursday. The previous run of 
the GFS (18z) had this wave zooming east toward SW Kansas by 06z 
Friday, but the GFS has now back off on this solution, slowing down 
the wave movement and is in line more with the European model (ecmwf). This brings 
the wave across as a less significant open wave, crossing southern 
Kansas Friday night. Another large upper low dips south just off 
the Southern California coast around Saturday and sits there and 
spins as cold air entrains into the west side of the low. 


What all this translates to mostly sunny days and mostly clear 
nights for days 3-6, increasing clouds on day 7, and a possible 
winter storm beyond that (friday-Saturday timeframe). Our severe weather potential statement has 
the Thanksgiving weekend storm potential mentioned, and thus do not 
plan to change that much. I see maximum temperatures generally in the 
50s, warmer south and less warm north. Min temperatures should range in 
the lower to middle 20s northwest to the low to middle 30s southeast. Knocked temperatures 
down a bit for Thanksgiving and threw in a slight chance for snow 
Thursday night, but Thursday is beyond the day 7 forecast for now. 


&& 


Aviation... 


MVFR ceilings will pester the gck and ddc taf sites early this morning, 
but give way to VFR ceilings by 15z or so. Strong north to northeast 
winds in the 23g33kt range will persist through 15z also, before the 
pressure gradient relaxes. After 15z, expect middle level ceilings in the 
ovc080-100 range and winds 03015g22kt range. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 41 23 45 25 / 0 0 0 0 
gck 39 23 47 24 / 0 0 0 0 
eha 40 25 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 
lbl 41 25 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 
hys 40 21 43 24 / 0 0 0 0 
p28 45 25 44 27 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Fn25/12/12