428 
fxus63 kict 201736 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
issued by the National Weather Service Topeka Kansas 
1136 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Update... 


Updated for 18z tafs. 


&& 


Discussion... 


See previous discussion. 


&& 


Aviation... 


VFR conds expected through the period for all taf sites. Cold air advection and pressure 
rises continue this morning across the terminals leading to gusty nearly winds. 
This shld continue through the afternoon before decoupling quickly this evening as 
the surface hi pressure settles in. Low to middle level frontogenesis is leading 
to a scattered low deck and broken middle level deck this morning and this shld continue 
into the afternoon before clouds shift to the S and then only cirrus is 
expected through 18z Friday. As surface hi shifts eastward on Friday morning...low level 
flow shld turn more srly at all sites. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 234 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008/ 


Discussion... 
forecast challenges...how chilly the next couple of days. 


Large Canadian surface high pressure will settle southward 
across the northern plains today...with center of the high 
drifting across eastern Kansas tonight/early Friday morning. 
Even the return southerly flow on the back side of the high 
pressure will tend to recycle the Canadian air north on 
Friday. The NAM/GFS model forecasts of low level thickness and 
point soundings support maximums a bit cooler than the mav MOS 
the next couple of days. A band of altostratus ceilings 
will continue to develop along the middle level baroclinic 
zone into midday...ahead of the upper trough dropping south 
across the Midwest. The transient lift and associated clouds 
will move south and affect much of the area today...with 
gradual clearing in its wake tonight. This will allow for 
the coldest mins of the season so far...close to the going 
forecast. 


Low level warm advection will continue ahead of the upper 
shortwave trough passing off to our north and east on Friday 
night/Saturday. Milder temperatures with maximums climbing to 
near climatology expected for Saturday. 


Little if any changes to the forecast beyond Sunday. 


Darmofal 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 45 23 43 27 / 10 0 0 0 
Hutchinson 44 20 44 26 / 10 0 0 0 
Newton 43 22 42 27 / 10 0 0 0 
Eldorado 44 21 42 27 / 0 0 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 47 23 44 27 / 0 0 0 0 
Russell 42 22 45 25 / 10 10 10 0 
Great Bend 43 22 45 25 / 10 10 0 0 
Salina 43 22 44 26 / 10 0 0 0 
McPherson 43 22 44 26 / 10 0 0 0 
Coffeyville 47 22 43 27 / 0 0 0 0 
Chanute 44 21 42 26 / 0 0 0 0 
Iola 43 21 42 27 / 0 0 0 0 
Parsons-kppf 45 22 43 26 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Boustead