610 
fxus63 kpah 201730 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
1130 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Update... 
updated aviation section below for 18z taf issuance. 


&& 


Discussion... 
/issued 325 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008/ 
cold front now moving through the forecast area will usher plenty of 
cold air into the region for the latter part of the week right into 
the weekend as Arctic air continues to spill south from Canada. This 
air mass means business...as temperatures right now in central Canada are 
running in the -13 to -26 degree range. Modification will occur as 
it heads south into the states...but still should be the coldest air 
of the season with many areas in the upper teens by Sat morning. 


Post frontal stratus clouds will be the rule for much of the day 
today. Lack of sunshine and blustery north winds will likely hold 
temperatures within a few degrees of morning lows...and some locations may 
actually have slowly falling temperatures in the afternoon. Winds will 
likely gust into the 15 to 25 miles per hour range...making it feel even 
colder. 


Will continue to favor the colder met MOS temperatures today through Sat. 
Mav MOS has had a warm bias...especially on maximum temperatures with the past cold 
shot...and seems to be having the same issues with the upcoming air 
mass. After a chilly start in the 20 to 25 degree range Friday 
morning...will see highs struggle to get above freezing much of the 
day in some areas. Then...as the brunt of the cold surface high 
moves overhead Friday night...will likely experience low temperatures in the 
teens over a good portion of the forecast area. 


Next cold front/middle level short wave will enter the scene Sun 
night...and bring the next chance of rain with it. 


&& 


Aviation... 
scattered-broken ceilings will continue to flirt with VFR/MVFR threshold this 
afternoon across the area...generally in the 3-4k/feet range with 
occasional bases below 3k/ft. Gusty north winds will persist 
this afternoon...then level off tonight into the 6-10kt range. 
Model forecasts show decreasing low level moisture tonight...so 
improved cloud category to VFR and decreased coverage. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$