841 
fxus64 klch 201725 
afdlch 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
1125 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Update...regarding latest taf package... strong cold front 
currently located up near Texarkana will be arriving into central 
Louisiana by late afternoon and into southern Lousiana by early 
evening. The front will bring gusty northerly winds up to 25 knots tonight 
and tomorrow morning. It will be a dry front with some clouds. 
Conditions will be VFR tonight. 




&& 


Griffin/marcotte 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1030 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008/ 


Discussion... 
forecast looks on track for today...made only minor adjustments to 
sky grids. 


Previous discussion... /issued 348 am CST Thursday Nov 20 2008/ 


Discussion... 


Considerable fog across the area this morning as shown by current 
surface observations. Fog has not been continuously dense as noted 
by Lake Charles Airport observation bouncing around from 1/4 mile to 10 
miles. Will continue to monitor conditions as we approach sunrise 
for widespread dense fog possibility but will not issue an 
advisory at this time. 


Another pleasant day is on tap areawide before the next cold front 
currently along a lbb to sgf line and rapidly moving 
southward...arrives this evening. Although low level moisture has 
increased vs this time yesterday...still expecting a dry frontal 
passage across inland zones per latest model forecasts. Winds will be 
a larger issue with much of the southern zones likely reaching 
lake Wind Advisory criteria tonight into Friday morning. 


A much cooler day is on tap for Friday with the Canadian airmass 
not allowing temperatures to get out of the 50s. Guidance has come more 
in line with previous forecaster reasoning and have kept temperatures 
near MOS values. Appears the first widespread light freeze is in 
the cards for c la zones Friday night...with some locations 
possibly seeing lows drop into the upper 20s. A freeze warning may 
be necessary for areas along and north of the Highway 190 corridor 
in Louisiana if current trends continue to indicate widespread 
freezing temperatures. Appears remainder of forecast area will 
remain above the freezing mark at this time although temperatures 
will be in the 30s. 


Progressive weather pattern to continue with a rapid transition 
over the weekend to an onshore flow pattern as a large trough of 
low pressure develops over the West Coast and surface high 
pressure moves off to the east of the region. Enough low level 
moisture will be in place for a few showers Sunday and Sunday 
night...with more widespread showers and storms expected Monday 
and Monday night. GFS and European model (ecmwf) still remain in fairly good 
agreement on pushing the next cold front across the County Warning Area on 
Tuesday. Few changes were made in the extended forecast with a 
cool and dry midweek on tap before next storm system impacts the 
area by next weekend. 


Marine... 


No marine impacts expected during the day today before a strong 
cold front pushes through the coastal waters tonight. A isolated 
shower or two is possible along and behind the front but any 
rainfall will be minimal. The cold airmass behind the front 
moving over Gulf waters still in the 60s and 70s will create very 
gusty north winds up to 30 knots along with rough seas. Have gone 
ahead and issued Small Craft Advisory accordingly for all waters through Friday 
afternoon. Winds and seas will subside briefly Friday night into 
Saturday before the next storm system brings increasingly strong 
onshore flow and higher seas early next week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 75 43 57 35 62 / 0 10 10 0 0 
kbpt 76 45 57 37 62 / 0 10 10 0 0 
kaex 72 38 54 30 59 / 0 10 10 0 0 
klft 74 44 56 34 61 / 0 10 10 0 0 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Friday 
for the following zones: waters from Cameron, la to High 
Island, Texas extending from 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from 
Intracoastal City, la to Cameron, la extending from 20 nm 
to 60 nm...waters from lower Atchafalaya River to 
Intracoastal City, la extending from 20 nm to 60 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 12 PM CST Friday 
for the following zones: Calcasieu Lake...Sabine Lake... 
Vermilion Bay. 


Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Friday 
for the following zones: coastal waters from Cameron, la to 
High Island, Texas out 20 nm...coastal waters from 
Intracoastal City to Cameron, la out 20 nm...coastal waters 
from lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City, la out 
20 nm. 


&& 


$$