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fxus61 kgyx 201454 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
954 am EST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Synopsis... 
low pressure in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence was drifting slowly 
eastward...allowing massive high pressure over the central United 
States to plod eastward over the next two days. By early next 
week the high pressure system moves offshore with a developing 
return of southerly winds with increasing moisture...instability 
and moderating temperatures. On Tuesday a coastal low may develop 
off the coast and affect the area with unsettled weather. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
scattered to broken stratocumulus and altocumulus over the area 
kept some low temperatures rather mild overnight...and may keep 
maximum temperatures this afternoon a few degrees below expected 
values. Stretched-out vorticity maximum across New York state and 
southern New England providing broad lift for the cloud cover in 
northern New England. Most of the cloud cover should stick over 
the mountains but partly cloudy skies will generally be the rule 
near the coast. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/... 
the cold cyclonic flow will continue with some clouds from time to 
time and a slight chance of snow showers in the mountains the very 
cold temperatures will continue with lows into the single numbers and 
teens. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Wednesday/... 
semipermanent upper low in Quebec digs another trough to our west 
during Friday and closes it off by Saturday. An offshore low will 
intensify well offshore and is not expected to play much of a role 
in our weather...except to help keep a cold northerly wind in 
place. That upper low heads northward and allows high pressure to 
take hold for a nice Sunday. Overrunning clouds will move into 
southern areas Sunday night as another closed system takes shape 
in the Great Lakes. Mainly light snow from this...with a mix near 
the coast. GFS spins up a secondary low off the Jersey coast 
early Tuesday and lifts it to the Gulf of Maine late Tuesday. 
Enough warm air may get in to bring rain or a mix to southern 
portions Tuesday into Wednesday...with snow for the mountains. 


&& 


Aviation /15z Thursday through Monday/... 
short term /through tonight/...VFR through the period. 


Long term...largely VFR conditions expected through Sunday. 
Deteriorating conditions for Sunday night and Monday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /today and tonight/...no flags...seas 2-3 feet and 
winds slackening to 10 to 15 knots. 


Long term...gradient from offshore low could require small craft 
Friday night into Saturday...and perhaps even gales. Winds 
strengthen again into the Small Craft Advisory criteria for Monday...this time out 
of the south ahead of the low from the west. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...St. Jean