735 
fxus63 kdlh 071945 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
145 PM CST Wednesday Jan 7 2009 


Discussion... 
through Sat... 
trough associated with low over eastern Great Lakes will continue to pull slowly out 
of the area this evening...leaving some residual les along the S 
shore. Not a strong les event as wind direc will not be ideal...but 
Delta-T favorable. An inch or two possible. After that...main forecast issue 
will be strong shortwave swinging through Thursday ngt/Fri. Models in good agmt 
except for quantitative precipitation forecast. NAM seems overdone considering lack of a good moisture 
source for this system. Moisture from Gulf of Mexico does not have enough time 
to get this far north. There is also a lack of good upward vertical velocity with weak fgen 
and isent lift over our County Warning Area. Strongest Omega and deep moisture maximize 
just S of our County Warning Area...then slide off to the east. All things considered 
at this time...2 to 4 inches seems rsnbl across our southern zones...with 
lesser amts to the north. 


Sun through Wednesday... 
the main focus for the long term is the shot of very cold air 
coming early next week. A clipper will be moving across Minnesota 
Sunday through early Monday morning. Not much moisture with 
system...so will only see less than an inch in most places. Strong 
high pressure will build in behind the system bringing in the much 
colder air for the first half of the week. Highs will be in the 
single figures above and below zero with lows in the -15 to -25 
range Tuesday and Wednesday. A slow warming trend begins later 
next week as the area will get temperatures near normal by the end of the 
week. 


&& 


Aviation... 
weak short wave at the western portion of Lake Superior is moving 
off to the east this afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions will improve 
to VFR conditions by the evening hours. The VFR conditions will 
continue into Thursday. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh -5 11 5 18 / 20 10 40 60 
inl -15 5 -1 15 / 10 10 40 50 
brd -5 13 9 23 / 10 10 60 60 
hyr -2 12 3 22 / 20 10 40 60 
asx 3 15 5 22 / 50 20 30 60 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 


Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...none. 


$$ 


04/Stewart