421 
fxus63 ksgf 180501 
afdsgf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO 
1201 am CDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


..update to aviation... 


Short term (tonight through friday)... 


Water vapor imagery depicts upper level low centered over 
northeast Oklahoma and digging south of the Missouri Ozarks. 
Surface high pressure will build into the plains and the Ozarks 
overnight with cloud cover decreasing overnight. However...with 
clearing skies...light winds and a moist boundary layer...fog 
development will be possible through early Thursday morning. 
Upper ridging will build into the Ozarks Thursday afternoon 
bringing a return of sunshine and warmer weather. 


A shortwave digging through The Rockies will produce leeside 
cyclogenesis in western Kansas late Thursday and Friday. 
Southerly return flow will develop along with Gulf moisture 
transport. A surface cold front will track east through the 
plains and move into southeast Kansas late Friday bringing a 
chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. 
Instability is expected to be limited which would hinder the 
potential of strong to severe thunderstorms. 


Angle 


&& 
long term (saturday through wednesday)... 


The warmer weather will come to an end this weekend as the next 
upper trough swings across the central U.S. On Saturday. Showers and 
perhaps a few thunderstorms will progress across the area Friday 
and Saturday with the associated cold front. Colder air will quickly 
follow the frontal passage while precipitation will linger behind 
the front. Rain will likely become mixed with or change to snow 
later Saturday and Saturday night. Little if any accumulation is 
expected at this time. However the speed and track of this system 
will have be monitored. Colder air will settle for Sunday into early 
next week maintaining the generally below normal temperatures. 
Moderating temperatures will return by the middle of next week. 


Foster 


&& 


Aviation... 


For the 06z taf package...forecast challenge for this package 
includes clearing stratus and potential for ground fog. Satellite 
imagery continues to show a shrinking stratus deck...with clearing 
expected at bbg within the hour and at sgf/jln in the next couple 
of hours. Attention then turns to fog potential as a moist ground 
couples with radiational cooling. Crossover temperatures are in the middle 
30s...so as we approach these temperatures MVFR visible is expected. IFR or 
lower visible is possible where temperatures hit the lower 30s...which is a 
better risk at sgf and bbg. Have not bit off totally on vlifr... 
but dense fog is plausible. Confidence is not yet high enough and 
night shift will need to closely monitor. Any fog should be short 
lived...lifting by middle morning with VFR expected thereafter. 


Gagan 


&& 


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$