515 
fxus63 kpah 071145 aaa 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
545 am CST Wednesday Jan 7 2009 


Update... 
revised aviation discussion for 12z tafs. 


&& 


Discussion.../issued 345 am CST Wednesday Jan 7 2009/ 
areas of mainly light snow...possibly mixed with rain...will 
traverse locations along and east of the MS river early this morning. 
Surface temperatures are running at or slightly above freezing over much of 
this region...except just below freezing up along the I 64 corridor 
of southern Illinois. Not looking for much in the way of a travel impact with 
this precipitation...as much of the snow will fall with temperatures near 
freezing. However...cannot rule out some slick spots where heavier 
bursts occur...especially northern half of the region where temperatures are a little 
colder. Could end up with a light covering in grassy areas at some 
locations. 


NAM/GFS/ECMWF now bring a quick moving clipper...though weak...through 
the area tonight. Most models now suggesting this system may squeeze 
out some light snow as it zips across the forecast area...so will 
need to introduce chance probability of precipitation for light snow tonight. Not expecting 
amounts to reach into advisory levels at this time...though there may 
be a minor travel impact on some roadways and a light coating on the 
ground as temperatures fall into the middle 20s to near 30 overnight. Looks 
more like Special Weather Statement material at this time. 


Next weather system in the form of another cold front will enter the 
region Friday night. Should warm substantially Friday in advance of 
the front...so expecting mostly light rain showers with the frontal 
passage. Most of the moisture should be S/east of the region before 
temperatures get cold enough to support frozen precipitation Sat morning. 


Rest of the weekend looks dry and seasonably chilly as high pressure 
moves in from the northwest. 


&& 


Aviation... 
light snow...producing IFR ceilings and visibilities...will depart 
the kevv and kowb terminals by 14z...with little accumulation 
expected. Thereafter...plenty of clouds will persist during the 
course of the day. VFR ceilings and visibilities should prevail by 
afternoon at all forecast terminals...but ceilings may flirt with 
MVFR category at kevv and kowb. Winds will increase from the west at 
15 to 20 knots...with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible by afternoon. 
Tonight...winds will subside considerably...with VFR ceilings and 
visibilities expected. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Meffert/rjp