886 
fxus64 klix 071727 aaa 
afdlix 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
1127 am CST Wednesday Jan 7 2009 


Update... 
..18z tafs... 


VFR conditions will be the rule for all terminals through tomorrow 
as a broad ridge of high pressure settles in. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 314 am CST Wednesday Jan 7 2009/ 


Short term... 
surface cold front has moved well east of the forecast area with 
the upper level sharp trough axis currently advancing from East 
Texas. A large high valued vorticity lobe is expected to move in 
conjunction with this trough feature to provide a period of 
gustiness this morning before falling off significantly after 
noon. Indications of this feature are appearing with 3 hour 
pressure changes of -3 to -4 mb over Texas and west Louisiana at 
08z in response to sharp height falls aloft. Otherwise... 
temperatures should warm into the lower 60s today...40s tonight 
and around 70 Thursday with no rain chances. /24 


Long term... 
westerly winds expected to bring a moderating temperature trend as 
flow becomes zonal aloft. Will maintain zero rain chances Friday 
and show 20-30 percent Friday night as clipper system pushes cold 
front through area early Saturday. GFS is hitting on Arctic 
airmass poised in Canadian rockies that is expected to move into 
central part of the country middle of next week to bring a threat 
of freezing temperatures into the deep south next Wednesday night. 
/24 


Aviation... 
cold front has completely push through the area with all showers 
well offshore. Clear skies for the entire period. Westerly winds are 
expected to remain light at less than 10 kts throughout the day. 
Near calm conditions are possible overnight. VFR will prevail 
through the period at all terminals. /Meffer 


Marine... 
the cold front has pushed through the coastal waters with just a few 
lingering showers in the outer coastals. SW winds of 15 to 20 knots 
can be expected today. These winds will gradually subside through 
the day and surface high pressure moves into the region. Seas have 
been running around 8 feet in the outer waters. Scy will drop off in 
the tidal lakes and near shore coastals by 18z as winds decrease 
earlier than outer. A lag in The Drop in seas is also expected in 
the outer coastal waters and thus kept the scy through 00z Thursday. 
Light winds with little wave action through the rest of the week. A 
cold front will push through the area this weekend. /Meffer 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 61 41 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 
btr 64 44 71 50 / 0 0 0 0 
msy 62 47 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 
gpt 61 43 69 49 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for gmz530-550-555. 


Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this afternoon for gmz570- 
575. 


MS...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for gmz550-555. 


Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this afternoon for gmz575. 


&& 


$$