033 
fxus64 kmeg 071756 
afdmeg 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 
1156 am CST Wednesday Jan 7 2009 


Update... 


Updated to add 18z aviation discussion. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1005 am CST Wednesday Jan 7 2009/ 


Update... 


Sunshine is finally returning to the middle-south today. A deep upper 
level trough stretched from the upper Midwest across the middle-south 
to the Gulf Coast early this morning. This trough will shift 
eastward today with any precipitation east of our forecast area by 
afternoon. A band of middle-level clouds continue to move through the 
region...but skies are expected to become partly sunny across the 
entire area this afternoon. Knqa radar is indicating some 
reflectivity between 25 and 30 dbz...but think most of this is 
middle-level clouds with any precipitation mainly not reaching the 
ground. Can not rule out a few sprinkles or flurries mostly across 
northwest Tennessee until noon. A tight surface gradient exist across the 
mid-south...so expect southwest to west winds to be strong and 
gusty today. Earlier forecast highs for today still look good. 


Have already sent updated zones / grids to reflect current 
thinking for this afternoon. 


Jcl 


Discussion... 


Issued 249 am CST Wednesday Jan 7 2009 


Skies remain cloudy over the forecast area early this morning 
which has kept temperatures in the middle 30s to middle 40s. Upper level 
trough is moving through the region at this time. As it moves 
through west Tennessee and north Mississippi it may triggers some 
light rain. Some of the rain may be mixed with some snow shortly 
after sunrise but won't accumulate. All of the precipitation 
should be east of the forecast area by this afternoon. Skies 
should gradually clear behind the trough which will allow 
temperatures to be a little warmer than Tuesday. Weak high 
pressure will build into the region by tonight which should keep 
things dry for a couple of days. Thursday should remain dry with 
temperatures a few degrees warmer than today. The surface high 
will move east of the region Thursday night so winds will shift to 
the south by Friday so temperatures will warm up some more. 
Another cold front will move into the region Friday night bringing 
another chance of rain for both Friday night and Saturday. Cooler 
air will move in behind the front so Saturday should be chilly 
with highs in the 40s. Saturday night should be dry and continued 
chilly. Sunday should be a little warmer as winds become 
southwest. Another cold front moves through the region on Monday 
bringing a small chance of rain. Much colder air is behind this 
front so there is a chance for a mix of rain and snow or just snow 
before the precipitation ends on Tuesday. Tuesday will be another 
chilly with temperatures expected to remain in the 30s. 


Ars 


Aviation... 


18z taf cycle 


VFR conditions expected through the entire taf cycle. West winds 
will average around 12-14kts with gusts up to around 22-24kts this 
afternoon. Winds will gradually weaken around 00z to around 
7-8kts. Middle level clouds around 10-12kft associated with a surface 
trough will move through taf sites tonight resulting broken/overcast skies 
through 11z. 


Cjc 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mem 50 39 53 36 / 10 10 0 10 
mkl 46 34 48 29 / 20 10 0 10 
jbr 50 34 49 32 / 10 10 0 10 
tup 51 38 54 33 / 20 10 0 10 


&& 


Meg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
MO...none. 
MS...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$