905 
fxus65 kmso 061942 
afdmso 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Missoula Montana 
142 PM MDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Discussion...tonight through Wednesday...a strong jet stream will 
be pushing moisture into the northern rockies tonight in the form 
of increasing clouds and precipitation over far northwest Montana. The 
Pacific cold front is developing and should pass through western 
Montana Tuesday bringing breezy conditions and cooler temperatures. 
Downsloping winds into the north-south valleys should result in 
some shadowing and lower precipitation chances...so the main 
concern Tuesday will definitely be the westerly winds in excess of 
25 miles per hour. Will hold off on issuing a Wind Advisory for now so 
timing can be nailed down a bit more. Drying weather and brisk fall 
temperatures are in store for Tuesday night and Wednesday. 


Wednesday night through Monday...very poor consistency between the 
extended models...so have not made any major changes. What the 
models do have in common is developing a low and moving it across 
the area during the extended...but the timing of the low is not 
close. The GFS brings the low across southwest Montana Friday 
night...the European model (ecmwf) brings the low into southwest Montana Friday 
morning...and develops a much deeper low. 


&& 


Aviation...strong Pacific jet will nose into the northern rockies 
tonight with clouds increasing. Precipitation will develop along 
with a cold front sliding through northwest Montana late tonight 
and west central Montana and Idaho on Tuesday. Clouds should be 
terrain locked...obscuring the peaks...while downslope clearing 
is expected to develop in the larger valleys Tuesday afternoon 
with gusty surface winds in excess of 25 kts at times. 




&& 


Mso watches/warnings/advisories... 
Montana...none. 
Idaho...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...sigler 
long term....kolata 
aviation...sigler