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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana 
938 am MDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Short term...for northeast Montana...today through Tuesday... 
see little need to change the going forecast. A few light showers 
this morning will be tapering-off by the afternoon with high 
temperatures running below yesterday..but warming more quickly. Monday 
morning lows could drop into the middle to low 30s in some areas as 
winds become light tonight under mostly clear skies...especially 
east of Glasgow. Outside chance for a convective shower this 
afternoon with some surface heating and a neutral sounding 
forecast. Clear and warmer Monday and Tuesday as some ridging 
builds over the area. Wjm 


Northwest flow aloft will continue into Monday. Then...an upper 
ridge will turn the flow aloft to the west Monday night and 
Tuesday ahead of a midweek system that will affect Montana. 


Shortwave trough currently moving southeast from British Columbia 
into western Montana will bring showers to many areas of Montana 
today. Northeast Montana will stay to the east of the rain for the 
most part today as a high pressure system build into the area from 
Saskatchewan. Areas west of Malta and Jordan have the best chances 
of seeing showers and will have the highest probability of precipitation. Atmosphere will 
become somewhat unstable by afternoon with daytime heating so that 
all parts of northeast Montana may see a shower or two this 
afternoon. Will mention slight chance of showers mainly this 
afternoon in most areas and go with chance of showers in the west. 


This wave will exit the state tonight. Look for clearing skies 
with light winds resulting in a cool night with freezing 
temperatures likely in low lying areas of the forecast area. Will 
issue a hazardous weather outlook for freezing temperatures 
tonight. 


Shortwave ridge moves in for Monday and Tuesday with dry weather 
and a warming trend. Should see temperatures back to near normal 
on Tuesday. Forrester 


Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday... 
persistent northwest upper flow should make a brief departure at 
the start of this period as a northern stream impulse phases with 
a weak trough along the West Coast. This process results in Tuesday/S 
welcome warmth before a cold front slides through the region 
Wednesday. Earlier concern that the trough/S energy would split 
around the County Warning Area is looking more probable at this point as the 
GFS...European model (ecmwf) and Gem are depicting the core of this trough/S energy 
closing off to our southwest Wednesday afternoon. A fair number of 
the GFS ensemble members also support this solution...so have 
trimmed back on inherited probability of precipitation but kept some mention of precipitation 
given pattern recognition. Greatest uncertainty this period is the 
progress this low makes with multiple solutions now up for grabs. 
For now have followed the ensemble mean approach which keeps this 
low more Mobile and predominantly to our south...though there is 
some threat that this feature could drift far enough northeast to 
give portions of the County Warning Area renewed chances for precipitation on Thursday. 


Be the end of the week another trough should be found dropping 
southeast across western Canada with a decent warm pocket 
preceding it. This solution would support a short-lived warm day 
on Friday before cold frontal passage ensues by the start of the weekend. 
Some climatology probability of precipitation may become necessary for this system...though at 
present time limited confidence precludes mention. Mcz 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR with just a few light rain showers drifting southeast this 
morning and afternoon. Scattered to broken clouds between 7 to 10k 
feet above ground level will become more prevalent by afternoon as a north wind 
remains generally at or below 10 knots. Sky should be clearing out 
tonight with wind dropping off to light and variable. A short 
period of fog is a slight possibility at kolf around sunrise 
Monday morning...which would drop conditions briefly to perhaps 
LIFR. VFR Monday at all sites with wind generally south to 
southwest around 10 knots with afternoon gusts to near 20 
knots...particularly at kgdv and ksdy. 


&& 


Glasgow watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Glasgow