572 
fxus61 kakq 071640 
afdakq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
1140 am EST Wednesday Jan 7 2009 


Synopsis... 
a strong cold front crossing the area this afternoon and evening. 
High pressure builds back over the region Thursday through Friday. 
The next cold front pushes to the East Coast by late Saturday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
very busy thus far morning...W/ numerous challenges rngg from (dense fg) to 
temperatures from the 30s (nw) to near 70 (ese) to the development of low topped 
convection moving through southeast Virginia/NE NC. As fast as temperatures rose from the l40s 
to m60s here at akq (btwn 13 and 14z)...they then fell back into 
the u40s (btwn 14 and 15z). Bulk of convection offshr now...as initial 
boundary shifts to the east. Low level wdg continuing to hang on for many inland 
spots...especially in vicinity of i95 on westward. Temperatures remaining a challenge throughout the 
rest of the day. Main precipitation shifts eastward across the forecast area early this 
afternoon...W/ actual surface cold front tracking to the CST by this evening. How 
much mixing west/ and/or after frontal passage as wndshift to west occurs? Have 
adjstd temperatures dn (sgfntly across the e) for this afternoon...W/ actual 
cooling from frontal passage not to be experienced until this eve/tngt. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/... 
cdfrnt pushes offshore this evening...with upper level trough pushing offshore 
a few hours later. Thus...will quickly end precipitation west-east this evening. Cold air advection / 
subsidence sets in allowing column to dry out and temperatures to fall back 
into the 30s. 


Deep layered westerly flow takes hold during Wednesday night...leading to cool/dry weather 
Thursday/Friday (as surface hi pressure from the west-northwest gradually builds eastward into rgn). Temperatures 
close to seasonal nrmls. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
high pressure moves offshore as a cold front approaches from the west Friday 
night. The front will move through on lt Sat...then offshore on sun. 
Latest GFS/European model (ecmwf) show the system splitting with the majority of 
the precipitation moving by to our north and S...with our forecast area stuck in between 
under downslope/west flow. Will cap probability of precipitation at 20-30% during frontal passage. High 
pressure then briefly builds in from west through early Monday. Latest GFS 
develops an area of low pressure back to our SW/west early next week then 
moves it through the forecast area on next Tuesday and beyond...while the latest European model (ecmwf) 
keeps the forecast area dry (altho previous European model (ecmwf) runs have resembled the GFS 
solution). Will not go any higher than a slight chance of rain at 
this point given the inconsistencies and being 7-8 days from now. 


Temperature wise...expect a mild Sat under SW flow ahead of the front with 
highs in the lower 50s to near 60 (upr 40s lower Maryland eastern shore). Highs 
fall on Sun Down into the middle 40s to middle 50s...then even cooler on 
Monday and Tuesday...only upper 30s to upper 40s. Low temperatures will be in the middle 
30s to middle 40s Sat night with lingering clouds and moisture during 
frontal passage...then much colder thereafter with lows near 20 to lower 30s. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/... 
LIFR/IFR conds Erly this morng across most of the area (esply north of the 
NC/Virginia border) will gradually improve by late morng or Erly afternoon 
everywhere...as warm front lifts north of the region allowing strnger SW 
surface winds to result in advance of cold front. Ceilings and visibilities will 
lift to MVFR/VFR conds through the afternoon into the eveng...as rain showers move 
through and the passage of the cold front. VFR conds expected and winds 
at least breezy for later tonight through Thursday...as strong low pressure moves 
through New England into the Canadian Maritimes. Hi pressure and VFR conds 
for Friday into Erly Sat. Another front moves across the region later Sat 
and Sat eveng...possibly bringing some lower ceilings/visibilities due to rain showers. 


&& 


Marine... 
warm front will lift north of the region later this morng...with cold front 
approaching and pushing through the area this afternoon and eveng. Will have 
at least sca's all waters today...with Gale Warning for coastal NE NC waters and 
Currituck sand from late this morng through late tonight. Strong west winds then 
eventually northwest winds will continue behind the front from tonight through Thursday 
night...as strong low pressure moves through New England into the Canadian 
martimes. So...have extended Small Craft Advisory for all waters except NE NC (since 
they will have a Gale Warning up through late tngt) through Thursday night. Hi pressure 
will build over the region for Friday into Erly Sat. Another front will 
cross the waters later Sat and Sat eveng. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Gale Warning until 6 am EST Thursday for anz632-633-654-656- 
658. 
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 am EST 
Friday for anz630-631. 
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EST Friday for anz650-652. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...alb/mpr 
near term...alb/mpr 
short term...mpr 
long term...jrl 
aviation...tmg 
marine...tmg