860 
fxus61 kakq 072003 
afdakq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
303 PM EST Wednesday Jan 7 2009 


Synopsis... 
a strong cold front crosses the area this evening. High pressure 
builds back over the region Thursday through Friday. The next cold 
front pushes to the East Coast by late Saturday. High pressure 
returns on Sunday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
just another Ordinary day...not. Its certainly been one of the mr 
interesting weather days around here in quite a whl. Warming south-southwest low level winds 
prevailing across bulk of forecast area at this time...finally eroding low level wdg 
inland...and boosting temperatures back up into the 60s in the southeast (whr 
rdgs reached earlier today b4 strong low topped convection occurred). 


Surface cold front about to enter far western sections of forecast area...and will be reaching the 
CST this evening. SW winds gusty at times at this time...remaining so this evening...whl 
switching to mr westerly drctn Post frontal passage. Concerned about period of 
gusts to around 40 miles per hour...noted hsp recent gst to 46 miles per hour...rdu 44 miles per hour. 
Prtl clearing now occurring across central and western sections of forecast area...whl moisture 
axis shifts to the CST. Continuing west/ chance rain showers for the (ery) evening most 
plcs. After mild start to the evening...rdgs begin to fall after frontal 
passage. However...low temperatures are expeceted to stay above freezing most plcs 
(xcptn being for northwest sections of forecast area well west-northwest of ric) as blyr remains 
mixed. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday through Saturday night/... 
middle/upper level trough crss the region Thursday. Models suggesting enhanced moisture crsg 
the mountains and across extreme southern Virginia and NC from middle morning through early afternoon 
hours. Continued drying of llvls should prevent (any) precipitation (reaching 
grnd)...will go west/ psny as average cloud cover most plcs. Surface hi pressure 
arrives Thursday night/early Friday...then shifts offshr Friday night. Colder and 
dry Thursday night...and low level flow will be slow to swing to the S Friday 
afternoon...limiting any wrmup. Next system takes shape in vicinity of Midwest Friday...and 
is quik to track east Friday night through Sat. Surface low pressure to pass north of 
forecast area on Sat...leading to trailing cold front crsg the forecast area Sat aftn/eve. Have 
raised probability of precipitation to chance all areas for Sat afternoon. 


Low temperatures Thursday night dn in the 20s/l30s...hi temperatures Friday largely in the 
l/m40s. After quik temperature drop Friday evening...rdgs likely to level off for 
the rest of the night. Sat will have hi temperatures from the u40s northwest to around 60 
southeast. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
the front pushes off the coast by midnight Sat night as high pressure 
builds back in from the west. The high will remain in control of the weather 
through Monday. A weak trough will then move through the region from the northwest. 
Moisture is lacking with this shallow feature...and thus will forecast 
only a slight chance (20%) of rain with the trough passage Tue-Wed. 


High temperatures will generally be in the lower 40s to near 50 sun through 
Tuesday...and low temperatures will be in the lower 20s to middle 30s. Much colder 
air is then prognosticated to arrive for the middle to late part of next week 
(perhaps the coldest air of the season). 


&& 


Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/... 
as triple pt moved through the area conditions ranged from LIFR/IFR 
at sby/ric due to visible as remaining sites bounced between IFR/MVFR 
with lower ceilings and showers...all had gusty winds. Cold front 
pushing through central/southeast Virginia at this time with clring behind it. Ric VFR this 
afternoon as sby can expect tempo LIFR/IFR ceilings into the evening hours. 
Phf/orf/ecg remain in rain shield for the next few hours and will 
bounce between mvr/VFR. By late evening the cold front will push off 
shore and VFR later tonight into Thursday. Breezy conditions expected 
all sites overnight and Erly Thursday. Hi pressure and VFR conds for Friday 
into Erly Sat. Another front moves across the region later Sat and 
Sat eveng...possibly bringing some lower ceilings/visibilities due to rain showers. 


&& 


Marine... 
strong SW winds will continue tonight under a tight pressure gradient. 
Gale warnings are in effect for all waters. Gusts to around 35 knots 
are likely over the Bay...and to around 40 knots over the coastal 
waters. In addition...hazardous short period seas of up to 9 feet are 
already being observed at buoy 44009...with generally 6 to 8 feet seas 
occurring S of there. 


Winds will start to diminish Thursday morning as low pressure departs to 
the NE...and as high pressure builds in from the west. The high/ridge 
axis moves overhead of the waters on Friday with a brief return of 
tranquil boating conditions. An area of low pressure then moves through 
the middle-Atlantic region Sat through early sun...with Small Craft Advisory headlines 
expected. High pressure then returns by sun through early next week. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Gale Warning until 10 am EST Thursday for anz632-633-656-658. 
Gale Warning until 7 am EST Thursday for anz630-631. 
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for anz650-652-654. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...alb 
near term...alb 
short term...alb 
long term...jrl 
aviation...cy 
marine...jrl