434 
fxus61 kmhx 071435 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
935 am EST Wednesday Jan 7 2009 


Synopsis... 
a strong cold front will move through from the west late today 
followed by a secondary cold front late Thursday. High pressure 
will build in from the west Friday...then move offshore Saturday. 
A weak cold front will move across the region Saturday night. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
cold front is currently moving into central NC. Only update to 
forecast is to up high temperatures a degree or two. Precipitation with embedded 
squall line is beginning to make its way into the coastal plain. No 
lightning yet...but potential is still there for today. Still looks 
like marginal instability. But would not be surprised to see isolated 
thunderstorms. Surface observation indicating winds have increased to 25-30 miles per hour 
with gusts up to 40 miles per hour and expect further increase this afternoon 
when greater mixing and tightening gradients ahead of the cold 
front. Wind Advisory looks good for all counties. 


Record highs for today: 
mhx 75 1998 
ewn 74 1953 
hse 72 1930 
pgv 75 1998 


The cold front will push offshore this evening with strong cold air advection 
developing this evening. With steep low level lapse rates and low 
level winds of 40-50 knots will continue to see strong wind gusts 
tonight. Even with strong mixing overnight expect min temperatures in the 
l/m40s. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/... 
the upper trough axis moves across the East Coast Thursday with a 
secondary cold front moving across the region. With little 
moisture to work with...expecting a dry frontal passage. Gradients remain 
fairly tight and expect breezy to windy conditions Thursday. High pressure 
builds in from the west Thursday night. Below normal temperatures expected in the 
short term with highs around 50s and lows in the u20s away from 
the coast to m30s coastside. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/... 
made very little changes to the long term. High pressure will be 
centered over the region Friday with another cool day expected...then 
the high slides offshore Friday night and Sat bringing a warming 
trend. The next front is prognosticated to cross the region Sat night but 
models still at odds over timing and available moisture. There is 
also uncertainly sun into early next week with position of the 
front offshore and potential waves of low pressure sliding NE along 
the stalled front. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
some lowering of ceilings currently indicated as line of showers 
progresses quickly across the County Warning Area. Winds continue to gust into the 
40s. These trends will continue over the next couple of hours 
until the showers move offshore by early afternoon. Expect 
predominate VFR ceilings to ensue with winds being the main 
aviation problem through tonight. 


While the extended period will be active with several frontal 
passages...expect largely VFR conditions with only occasional 
reductions in visibility in fog and/or precipitation...mainly Sunday. 


&& 


Marine... 
only minor adjustments to current forecast to account for current conditions. 
Widespread gale conditions are expected this afternoon with the 
nam12/sref/local arw indicating the strongest winds likely to 
occur between 00z and 06z tonight. Current gale warnings looks to 
be in good shape. 


Cold air advection and secondary front will result in Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing 
Thursday into early Friday. Winds and seas will diminish Friday into Friday 
night with surface high moving in...then winds will increase again Sat 
with next front moving in. 






&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ncz029-044>046- 
079-080-090>094-098. 
Wind Advisory until 5 am EST Thursday for ncz047-081-095-103- 
104. 
Marine...Gale Warning until 10 am EST Thursday for amz130-135-150-152- 
154-156-158. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...sk 
near term...cqd 
short term...sk 
long term...sk 
aviation...jbm/ctc 
marine...jbm/ctc