487 
fxus62 kmhx 071917 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
217 PM EST Wednesday Jan 7 2009 


Synopsis... 
a strong cold front will move through from the west this afternoon 
followed by a secondary cold front late Thursday. High pressure will 
build in from the west Friday...then move offshore Saturday. A weak 
cold front will move across the region Saturday night. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
cold front will move across the area this afternoon and push 
offshore tonight. Expect precipitation to be offshore by 00z...with a few 
isolated showers possible until 03z. Gradient still strong behind 
the front so expect the winds to stay up for most of the overnight 
hours...beginning to come down slowly from west to east after 
midnight. Temperatures cooling into the low 40s inland to middle/upper 40s 
along the coast. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday through Friday night/... 
the upper trough axis moves across the East Coast Thursday with a 
secondary cold front moving across the region. Added slight chance 
probability of precipitation for frontal passage Thursday afternoon. Models/sref showing 
more moisture than previous runs...precipitable waters  about 0.5" and not much 
moisture transport at lower levels...think if we do see any precipitation 
it will be confined mainly to the northern County Warning Area. Gradient remains 
fairly tight and expect breezy to windy conditions through the day 
Thursday. High pressure builds in from the west Thursday night. Below 
normal temperatures expected in the short term with highs around 50 and 
lows around 30 inland to middle 30s along the coast. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/... 
high pressure will move off the coast Saturday ahead of the next 
frontal system. Cold front will move through the area Saturday 
night. Cooler temperatures behind the front back into the low/middle 50s. HPC 
forecasts depict low pressure off the coast Monday/Tuesday. With another 
front moving through the area Tuesday. Still some uncertainty with 
long range models relating to timing and moisture. Cooler air looks 
to be moving into the area Wednesday behind the front. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/... 
expect primarily VFR conditions to prevail with good mixing through the 
overnight hours. Some brief MVFR may occur over the next 2 to 3 
hours with lingering showers. 


Some showers may occur with secondary frontal passage on Thursday 
which may briefly reduce ceilings to MVFR range. Another front 
will pass through the County Warning Area Saturday evening which may also produce 
showers and lower ceilings briefly. The remainder of the forecast 
period should be in the VFR range. 


&& 


Marine... 
will continue gale warnings into the morning hours. Winds on the 
coastal waters in a bit of a lull at the moment...but the NAM/sref and 
local arw model all indicate that winds will increase again between 
00z and 06z with solid gales on all waters. Winds subside by 
Thursday morning but continue in the Small Craft Advisory range through midday Friday. 
Seas likewise will be rough...as high as 10 feet tonight...and 
continuing in the 5 to 7 foot range until about midday Friday. Weak 
high pressure builds over the region Friday night before increased 
SW flow kicks in ahead of the next front Saturday afternoon and 
evening with winds/seas again likely to reach Small Craft Advisory criteria. High 
pressure will again build in with relatively benign conditions for 
Sunday into Monday. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ncz029-044>046- 
079-080-090>094-098. 
Wind Advisory until 5 am EST Thursday for ncz047-081-095-103- 
104. 
Marine...Gale Warning until 10 am EST Thursday for amz130-135-150-152- 
154-156-158. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...cqd 
near term...cqd 
short term...cqd 
long term...cqd 
aviation...ctc 
marine...ctc